Have you washed the Oscars out of your hair? Are you ready for another intriguing and confounding Emmy season? Well, screenings are happening, strategies are being implemented and we’re less than three months from the beginning of nomination voting on June 13. And while one colleague recently remarked the Television Academy should just throw this Emmy season in the bin, there are still many worthy contenders to consider.
READ MORE: “True Detective: Night Country” Review: A haunting dark night of the soul returns the franchise to spellbinding form
Granted, the strikes of last summer severely hampered this year’s Emmy crop. Most notably in Drama Series, but we’ll tackle that in a minute. Moreover, the strikes also coincided with the end of “Peak TV.” In 2023, the number of adult television series had already dropped from 600 in 2022 to 516. And the first quarter of 2024 has demonstrated an even steeper decline. Throw in some strange category fraud (they know who they are) and the picking in some categories is eye-brow-raising.
Keeping all that in mind, some necessary questions as the 2024 Primetime Emmy Season gets into full gear.
How many comedy and drama series acting submissions will there actually be?
There is good news and some bad news for those hoping for some legitimate competition in the twilight hours of Peak TV. The bad news is in January, the Television Academy confirmed that no matter how many submissions are received there will be eight Drama Series nominations and eight Comedy Series nominations. That being said, the acting categories will be determined by the number of submissions. Here’s a quick breakdown:
20 – 80 submissions = 5 nominations
81 – 160 submissions = 6 nominations
161 – 240 submissions = 7 nominations
> 240 submissions = 8 nominations
Last year, there were only six nominees for Lead Actor/Actress in a Drama Series and eight for Supporting Actor/Supporting Actress. And five in Lead Actor/Actress in a Comedy Series and seven in Supporting Actor/Actress. A new rule for 2024 will lock the Lead and Supporting categories into the same number of noms. Our guess is that we’re looking at six in each, but no one will know for sure into members begin voting for nominations in June.
Can anyone take down “The Bear”?
The one constant of the 2024 Guild Awards season wasn’t “Oppenheimer,” it was the complete and utter domination of FX’s critically acclaimed dramedy. Granted, we’re not sure there is much comedy left in the series (cough, a prime example of the aforementioned category fraud), but it swept almost every possible honor you could imagine (including the Spirit Awards). It took the Emmy Award for Comedy Series and nine other statues for its first season during the delayed ceremony in January. It should be noted, however, that voters were making their selections this past August, just a few weeks after a star-filled and equally celebrated second season dropped. So, now, Television Academy members will be voting on the second season when a third season may or may not drop during voting (FX has not confirmed a release date). Meanwhile, “Hacks” returns two years after its celebrated second season. That Jean Smart favorite could put up a fight in some categories and “Abbott Elementary” has enjoyed a superb, truncated third season so far. But is “The Bear” a lock to win it all again? Will there be a voting backlash? Judging by how “Ted Lasso” fared over its first two seasons we’d think not, but that third season? Watch out.
Will “Reservation Dogs” finally get a Comedy Series nom?
The list of accolades Sterlin Harjo‘s groundbreaking FX series earned in its three seasons is impressive. One organization that has largely ignored “Reservation Dogs,” however, is the Television Academy. In a weak Comedy Series season (although not as weak as Drama Series), might it finally land a series nom? With eight slots it’s got a solid shot but Television Academy members might need to have it banged into their head to vote for it. If not, you might be shocked at what broadcast fare makes the cut instead.
What on earth is happening in Drama Series?
We are not exaggerating when we suggest this may be the weakest Drama Series class in decades. Not years, but decades. Before the advent of prestige cable and steamers. With eight guaranteed slots “The Crown,” “The Morning Show,” “The Gilded Age,” and “Loki” should make it. And then it gets wild with previous also-rans such as “Slow Horses” more than likely to earn a nod. And then? “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” has a shot. “Gen V” has a shot (really). “Ahsoka” has a shot (no joke). Netflix’s “3 Body Problem”? Despite mixed reviews, probably a lock unless it completely bombs on the service. And if “The Diplomat” makes it in time? Sure! The category is so weak that a broadcast player could crash the party for the first time since “This Is Us’” last nomination three years ago. Meanwhile, two former nominees, “House of the Dragon” and “The Boys” are not qualifying but still dropping new episodes in June, just weeks after the deadline. This is utterly bizarre. Each program could do a face-plant in its new season and still be a guaranteed nominee this season. Why wait?
What Netflix series will surprise?
If we know one thing, it’s that Television Academy voters love Netflix. Granted, that’s not that much of a surprise considering it’s the number one streamer, but like SAG voters, they tend to gravitate to it even when there are more worthy possibilities elsewhere. That makes us curious whether “hit” Netflix programs such as limited series such as “One Day,” comedy series “The Gentlemen,” or limited series such as “The Fall of the House of Usher,” “Griselda,” “Ripley” or the upcoming “A Man in Full” could crack some categories you might not expect.
What is the fifth Limited Series or Anthology Series nominee?
There are many arguments to be made that “True Detective: Night Country” should switch categories to Drama Series (including the fact it could win a ton more trophies), but that is clearly not happening. And, still, “Night Country,” a massive hit for HBO, is a lock for a Limited Series nomination. The come-back season of “Fargo”? That’s pretty much a lock. The last three slots? Question marks. Apple TV+’s “Lessons in Chemistry” earned some guild love, but can it duplicate that success with the Television Academy? Critic’s favorite “Showgun” appears to be a big hit for FX, but will that translate? Are enough voters watching “Masters of the Air”? Showtime’s “Fellow Travelers” has its fans, but are there enough of them? Is Park Chan-wook’s “The Sympathizer” the late-arriving party crasher? Did anyone really love “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans”? Is “Griselda” Netflix’s nom in this category? And “Apples Never Fall,” “Franklin,” “Ripley,” “One Day,” “Mary and George,” “We Were The Lucky Ones,” “The Viel,” and “A Man in Full” are all waiting in the wings, among others. Oh, and no, even HBO’s magic touch can’t get “The Regime” in this category.
Is this “The Traitors” moment?
Despite a ton of buzz and notable streaming ratings for season one, the Peacock standout “The Traitors” didn’t make the Outstanding Competition Series cut last year. However, in a pleasant surprise, it won the only Emmy it was nominated for in the Outstanding Casting for a Reality Program category. A year later, “The Traitors” season two is a legitimate smash for the streamer with competitors worrying it might not only get nominated but win. That being said, a reality producer and Television Academy member who is a fan of the show made the point that “The Traitors” might be one of those competition shows you “forget about” as soon as it ends. It might not seep into the consciousness like “The Amazing Race” or “RuPaul’s Drag Race.” We still think it’s a safe nominee with Alan Cumming finally cracking the host category as well, but we do think Peacock and NBCUniversal have to spend for a major campaign so voters don’t have the opportunity to forget. Especially with Netflix’s newly minted BAFTA nominee “Squid Game: The Challenge” also hoping to knock one of last year’s nominees out of the club.
Is “Mr. Monk’s Last Case” the inevitable TV movie winner?
Wait, are you telling me you didn’t watch “Mr Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie” in between your holiday shopping this past December? Are you telling me you weren’t aware it already earned PGA, WGA, and SAG Awards nominations? Did you or your parents never watch Tony Shalhoub in the original USA Network series “Monk”? The one where Shalhoub earned eight Lead Actor in a Comedy Series Emmy nominations and won three times including back to back in 2005 and 2006? Well, this nostalgia play is right up the Television Academy’s alley. And in a category always as bats**t as Television Movie (the Television Academy refuses to fix it), not only is it a guaranteed nominee, but it might just be your winner. Sight unseen!
Can Kate Winslet still land her third Emmy win?
Is the respect for Kate Winslet strong enough to overcome, at worst, a mixed reception for “The Regime”? She’s already won Lead Actress in a Mini-Series or Movie for “Mildred Pearce” in 2011 and won again in 2021 for “Mare of Easttown.” A win seems questionable at this point, but can she at least land a nomination? She’ll have a lot of competition to deal with including Jodie Foster (“True Detective”), Brie Larson (“Lessons in Chemistry”), Juno Temple (“Fargo”), Naomi Watts (“Feud: Capote vs. the Swans”), Sofia Vergara (“Griselda”), Julianne Moore (“Mary and George”), Annette Bening (“Apple Never Fall”), Lily Gladstone (“Under the Bridge”) and, potentially, Anna Sawai (“Showgun”), among others. What seemed inevitable just months ago, seems less so now.
Can Robert Downey, Jr. pull off an Oscar and Emmy win in the same calendar year?
It’s been almost 20 years since Helen Mirren won an Oscar for “The Queen” and Outstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries or Movie for “Queen Elizabeth I.” In that time span no actor or actress has pulled off the Oscar and Emmy-winning feat within the same 12 months (Regina King came close in 2018-2019). Robert Downey, Jr, who just took home his first Academy Award for his role in “Oppenheimer” has a shot. He seemingly plays several different characters in the adaptation of Viet Thanh’s novel and qualifies in what appears to be a weak Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Television movie category. His competition so far? Jonathan Bailey (“Fellow Travelers”), Lewis Pullman (“Lessons in Chemistry”), Joe Kerry (“Fargo”), Jonathan Hawkes (“True Detective”), and Barry Keoghan (“Masters of the Air”), among others. Some good work, but nothing close to career-defining for any of them. If RDJ is as good as promised, we might have a bit of awards history in the making. Maybe.