The Little Mermaid, the live-action remake of the classic 1989 Disney animated film of the same name, has become so shrouded in debate and politicization that simply liking the film, or not liking the film, has become less about holding a critical opinion and more about defending an ideological position and making a statement.

While many people honestly felt that the very idea of remaking the beloved 1989 film was pointless, if not sacrilegious, much of the criticism of the remake has, of course, centered on the remake’s perceived woke agenda, specifically with the casting of Halle Bailey, a black actress, as the film’s titular character, in a traditionally red-haired, and white, role.

Updated September 7, 2023: In honor of The Little Mermaid finally arriving on Disney+, this article has been updated to better reflect the film’s current box office gross.

This polarization even extends to the perception of the film’s box office performance, as the film’s defenders have bent over backward, so to speak, to portray the film as a box office success, while detractors have been just as keen to portray the remake as a flop. While box office figures, like all statistics, can certainly be twisted to fit conflicting narratives, the box office performance of The Little Mermaid has been telling in terms of what it means for Disney but also how people respond to box office numbers.

Swimming Upstream Overseas
Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures

Released in North America on May 26, 2023, prior to the Memorial Day Weekend, The Little Mermaid grossed $118.6 million over the Friday-to-Monday Memorial Day frame, slightly ahead of the 2019 live-action remake of Aladdin, which grossed $116.8 million during the same four-day frame in 2019.

However, this $118.6 million opening weekend at the domestic box office was more than offset by a lackluster opening weekend performance in the international markets, where The Little Mermaid only grossed $63.8 million, including a pitiful $2.5 million opening weekend gross from the all-important Chinese market. As the previous live-action Disney remake films have made more money at the international box office than domestically, and by a wide margin, The Little Mermaid was in a very bad position to simply reach a break-even point financially, much less earn a sizable profit.

Related: The Little Mermaid (2023) Cast and Character Guide

With a $250 million production cost and a reported $140 million marketing cost, The Little Mermaid, under the most generous of projections, needed to gross approximately $560 million at the worldwide box office, according to Hollywood insiders, to reach its break-even threshold.

With The Little Mermaid finally arriving on Disney+, it seems safe it has concluded it’s box office numbers. The film grossed $298 million domestically and $569 million worldwide. This does push the movie beyond the estimated break-even point, but just barley. Of course, big studios have a way of hiding their numbers, so it isn’t certain if the $560 million break-even point was accurate to begin with. A general rule of thumb among movie-makers is to estimate that marketing will double the cost of the film, but this isn’t a hard and fast rule. Depending on what marketing strategy the company uses and how expensive the film gets, a ratio similar to what has been reported for The Little Mermaid is possible. With only a $9 million dollar difference, any small underestimation could dip into that perceived profit.

Yet, based on the initial report, the film made at least $9 million in profit at the box office. That does not include other revenue that the film will generate from PVOD, home video sales, and broadcast rights. Also worth noting, as with any Disney movie, the film is only one aspect of its success as another is how the film does in terms of generating merchandise and buzz for the theme parks.

Lagging Behind the Other Disney Live-Action Remakes
Walt Disney Pictures

With its weak international box office performance, The Little Mermaid has already fallen far behind the box office pace and performance of Disney’s previous live-action remake films, not including the pandemic-addled 2020 live-action remake of Mulan.

For example, the 2019 live-action remake of Aladdin grossed $356.5 million at the domestic and a whopping $695.1 at the international box office, for a worldwide box office gross of over $1 billion. Prior to Aladdin, Beauty and the Beast, the 2017 live-action adaptation of Disney’s 1991 animated film grossed $504 million domestically and $759.5 internationally for a worldwide box office gross of over $1.2 billion. The Lion King remains king of the box office, pulling in $1.5 billion worldwide.

In stark contrast, The Little Mermaid, at the end of its theatrical run, is half of that with $569 million. Now it is worth noting that the original animated The Little Mermaid’s box office was nowhere near as big as the animated Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin, and Lion King. So it seems unfair to expect the remake to outperform or even come close to the remakes of the more beloved Disney animated films when its predecessor did not.

In terms of box office, The Little Mermaid is the middle ground. It did come below The Jungle Book’s $967 million worldwide box office and Maleficent’s $759 million worldwide total. It did just barely beat Cinderella’s $542 million worldwide and also outgrossed Dumbo’s $353 million. Notably, these were all remakes and reimaging of classic Disney films as opposed to the Disney Renaissance films, so the fan base for those other entries was not as prevalent as the new entries. So, The Little Mermaid is both a hit and a disappointment in some respects.

Disney Remakes Might Be Dying
Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures

The Little Mermaid, both the animated film and the live-action remake, tells the story of a mermaid princess, Ariel, who is captivated by the outer human world, especially after she rescues a dashing human prince, Prince Eric, from drowning. Anxious to be reunited with Eric, Ariel makes a deal with a deceitful sea witch, Ursula, to be human for three days in exchange for Ariel’s ethereal singing voice so that Ariel can impress Eric before the three-day spell expires.

Given its array of whimsical elements, how and why did The Little Mermaid become such a divisive symbol? Did the backlash against the film and the accompanying effect of the practice of review-bombing have, as has been suggested, an adverse effect on the film’s box office, especially in the international markets, where the remake earned a further discouraging $42 million in its second weekend for a current overseas total of $140.5 million?

Related: Live-Action Lilo & Stitch and Disney’s Audience-Defying Recycling Machine

Of course, there is more to this story than just the color of the leading lady’s skin. There certainly was a sizable chuck of international audiences who might not have seen The Little Mermaid due to the decision to change Ariel’s race, but the number of those people to actually impact the box office is minuscule. Despite reports of “go work, go broke,” films like Captain Marvel, Black Panther, and Barbie show that diverse movies do very well.

Disney fans have generally expressed a growing dislike of the live-action remake practice. Especially when Disney keeps adapting animated films that were popular and often considered perfect to begin with, it makes sense that fans no longer wish to waste time or money seeing a longer version of the same movie. Why pay for a new one when the old one works just as well? Disney has been remaking their films for over a decade now, and the trend appears to be on the downslope. It will be interesting to see how remakes like Snow White and Moana do at the box office.

Can Streaming Save the Day?
Disney

Disney doesn’t really let the numbers from their streaming service out. However, there have been concerns recently that the number of viewers paying for Disney+ has gone down significantly. Without knowing the exact numbers, it is hard to determine if releasing The Little Mermaid on the streaming service has helped its financial performance at all.

In general, Disney has been putting their newly released films onto Disney+ shortly after being released in theaters and on PVOD but before their home video release. This means audiences have now gotten used to waiting to see movies in theaters for them to eventually show up on streaming. This might explain the overall decline in Disney’s box office, as now audiences are conditioned to wait for it to show up on Disney+.

However, it can help with growing the fan base. People who wouldn’t pay for the film may choose to watch it on Disney+ now, and if they like it, they may just spend money on the merchandise. As Star Wars creator George Lucas knew, much of the money to be made with movies rests on how much people will spend on it outside the theater. Disney is especially good at this, knowing that a movie’s box office is not the end of the story. Movies like Hocus Pocus and A Goofy Movie were disappointments at the time, but now merchandise sellers.

Again, without the numbers, it is hard to know if the toy sales from The Little Mermaid boosted its profits at all. While that doesn’t directly tie into the box office, it does impact how much money can be made from the film overall and how Disney sees their projects going forward.

What Is The Lesson Here
Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures

Numbers don’t lie, yet they need context to tell the full story. Yes, The Little Mermaid is the fifth highest-grossing film of summer 2023 behind Barbie, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Oppenheimer, and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. Yet it did gross $569 million worldwide, but it also cost $200 million. Yes, other Disney remakes grossed $1 billion, but those were remakes of far more popular Disney films whose box office beat the original animated The Little Mermaid.

The nature of the worldwide box office makes determining success tricky. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning both cost nearly the same amount and almost have the same grosses domestically, yet Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning was seen as a bigger hit due to a slightly bigger worldwide box office. Fast X did far worse than both them and The Little Mermaid domestically, not even ranking in the domestic top 10 of the summer, yet worldwide outgrossed all of them. Does that make it a hit or a flop?

Box office numbers are complicated, and it is not always the end of the story for these films. While The Little Mermaid might not get a sequel, was it ever expected to? It is already getting a Disney Junior-inspired series. It might make Disney rethink how much they spend on live-action remakes, but with budgets getting so out of control, that might be a good thing for them. The impact of the film will be felt years from now in how audiences respond to it and if it has the same staying power with young viewers that the original did.