Will there be any surprises when the 2022 Emmy season comes to a close Monday night? Can “Abbott Elementary” or “Hacks” topple “Ted Lasso” for Comedy Series? Could “Squid Game,” “Severance,” or “Stranger Things” take out “Succession” for Drama Series? Will members vote with their heart, likely “The White Lotus,” for the Limited Series they think they “need” to vote for, “Dopesick”? Or, will it all just go as we’d expect? Honestly, a tough call.
READ MORE: Adele, Chadwick Boseman and Barack Obama big winners on Creative Arts Emmys Night One [Complete List]
Looking back at the 2021 Primetime Emmy Awards almost every category landed as expected. Maybe Evan Peters was a slight surprise in Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Ewan McGregor in Lead Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie, but it wasn’t anything shocking. Even Michaela Coel‘s win for writing “I May Destroy You” was at least a hopeful prediction by many.
The 2022 ceremony is a slightly different scenario. For the most part, every major category is much more competitive than 12 months earlier. And the early results at the two Creative Arts Emmy ceremonies demonstrated that the Television Academy is, up to this point, spreading the wealth (unless you’re “Ted Lasso,” “Better Call Saul,” “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” or “Ozark” and have gone winless so far). So, chances are there will be a surprise or two. The question is, can you predict it?
Here are some educated predictions for the 2022 Primetime Emmy Awards where, in most cases, someone very worthy is going to win a shiny Emmy statue.
Outstanding Comedy Series
Abbott ElementaryBarryCurb Your EnthusiasmHacksThe Marvelous Mrs. MaiselOnly Murders in the BuildingTed LassoWhat We Do In The Shadows
Who will win: Ted LassoWho should win: Barry, Abbot ElementaryUpset: Hacks, Abbot ElementaryLowdown: “Ted Lasso” came in second among all nominated programs with 20 nominations overall. The fact it didn’t take home one award during the Creative Arts ceremonies is a red flag, but we’re not sure “Abbott Elementary” or “Hacks” can really knock it off its perch…yet. At least not this year.
Outstanding Competition Program
The Amazing RaceLizzo’s Watch Out For The Big GrrrlsNailed It!RuPaul’s Drag RaceTop ChefThe Voice
Who will win: RuPaul’s Drag RaceWho should win: RuPaul’s Drag RaceUpset: Lizzo’s Watch Out For The Big GrrrlsLowdown: “Lizzo’s Watch Out For The Big Grrrls” made a splash with six nods in its first year, but “RuPaul’s Drag Race” landed 11 (including those for its spin-off programs). No other reality competition programs came close in recognition. At the Creative Arts Emmy ceremonies, RuPaul took his seventh straight hosting award, a category voted on by all Television Academy members. “Drag Race” looks like a safe bet to win this honor for the fifth straight year.
Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
Atlanta • New JazzHiro Murai, Directed byBarry • 710NBill Hader, Directed byHacks • There Will Be BloodLucia Aniello, Directed byThe Ms. Pat Show • Baby Daddy Groundhog DayMary Lou Belli, Directed byOnly Murders In The Building • The Boy From 6BCherien Dabis, Directed byOnly Murders In The Building • True CrimeJamie Babbit, Directed byTed Lasso • No Weddings And A FuneralMJ Delaney, Directed by
Who will win: Bill HaderWho should win: Hiro Murai, Bill Hader, Cherin DabisUpset: Lucia Aniello, Cherien DabisLowdown: This field is arguably more competitive than it looks, but we still think Bill Hader will take his first in this category for “Barry.” “Hacks’” Lucia Aniello, who won this category last year, and “Only Murders in the Building’s” Cherien Dabis, also have a shot.
Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series
Ozark • A Hard Way To GoJason Bateman, Directed bySeverance • The We We AreBen Stiller, Directed bySquid Game • Red Light, Green LightHwang Dong-hyuk, Directed bySuccession • All The Bells SayMark Mylod, Directed bySuccession • The DisruptionCathy Yan, Directed bySuccession • Too Much BirthdayLorene Scafaria, Directed byYellowjackets • PilotKaryn Kusama, Directed by
Who will win: Ben StillerWho should win: Mark MylodUpset: Hwang Dong-hyukLowdown: Our gut says Ben Stiller will take this for “Severance,” but “Succession’s” Mark Mylod (who took the equivalent DGA Award earlier this year) and “Squid Game’s” Hwang Dong-hyuk are also in the mix.
Outstanding Directing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Dopesick • The People vs. Purdue PharmaDanny Strong, Directed byThe Dropout • Green JuiceMichael Showalter, Directed byThe Dropout • Iron SistersFrancesca Gregorini, Directed byMAID • Sky BlueJohn Wells, Directed byStation Eleven • Wheel Of FireHiro Murai, Directed byThe White LotusMike White, Directed by
Who will win: Mike WhiteWho should win: Hiro MuraiUpset: Hiro Murai or Danny StrongLowdown: Over the past decade, this category is 50/50 with both the director and the limited series itself taking home Emmys. For instance, last year Scott Frank won this honor and “The Queen’s Gambit” took the overall Limited Series prize. That should mean either Mike White (“The White Lotus”) or Danny Strong (“Dopesick”) winning this Emmy. Of course, the other trend could pop up and Hiro Murai could win for “Station Eleven,” which didn’t make the Limited Series cut. Maybe.
Outstanding Drama Series
Better Call SaulEuphoriaOzarkSeveranceSquid GameStranger ThingsSuccessionYellow Jackets
Who will win: SuccessionWho should win: SuccessionUpset: Squid Game, Stranger ThingsLowdown: While “Severance” clearly has its fans in the Television Academy, the results of the Creative Arts Emmys saw “Stranger Things” with five and “Squid Game” with four trophies so far. Why are we picking “Succession” then? The fact it leads all programs with 25 nominations might be a good reason why.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
AtlantaDonald Glover as EarnBarryBill Hader as Barry Berkman / Barry BlockThe GreatNicholas Hoult as Peter/PugachevOnly Murders In The BuildingSteve Martin as Charles-Haden SavageOnly Murders In The BuildingMartin Short as Oliver PutnamTed LassoJason Sudeikis as Ted Lasso
Who will win: Bill HaderWho should win: Martin ShortUpset: Martin Short, Jason SudeikisLowdown: Donald Glover and Jason Sudeikis, have both won this category previously (the “Ted Lasso” star took it last year), but Bill Hader has won it every time he’s been eligible. This is also an award where someone like Martin Short or even his “Only Murders in the Building” co-star, Steve Martin, could easily surprise.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
OzarkJason Bateman as Marty ByrdeSuccessionBrian Cox as Logan RoySquid GameLee Jung-jaiBetter Call SaulBob OdenkirkSeveranceAdam Scott as Mark ScoutSuccessionJeremy Strong as Kendall Roy
Who will win: Lee Jung-jaiWho should win: Brian CoxUpset: Brian Cox, Bob OdenkirkLowdown: “Squid Game’s” Lee Jung-jai should duplicate his historic win at the SAG Awards here. If not him then “Succession’s” Brian Cox or “Better Call Saul’s Bob Odenkirk will win their first in this particular category.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
The StaircaseColin Firth as Michael PetersonUnder The Banner Of HeavenAndrew Garfield as Detective Jeb PyreScenes From A MarriageOscar Isaac as JonathanDopesickMichael Keaton as Dr. Samuel FinnixStation ElevenHimesh Patel as Jeevan ChaudharyPam & Tommy •Sebastian Stan as Tommy Lee
Who will win: Michael KeatonWho should win: Sebastian Stan, Himesh PatelUpset: Colin Firth, Himesh PatelLowdown: Like Jung-jai, Michael Keaton should repeat his SAG Awards win for “Dopesick.” Probably a pretty safe pick, to be honest.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
The Marvelous Mrs. MaiselRachel Brosnahan as Miriam ‘Midge’ MaiselAbbott ElementaryQuinta Brunson as Janine TeaguesThe Flight AttendantKaley Cuoco as Cassie BowdenThe GreatElle Fanning as Catherine The GreatInsecureIssa Rae as IssaHacksArts EntertainmentJean Smart as Deborah Vance
Who will win: Jean SmartWho should win: Quinta BrunsonUpset: Quinta BrunsonLowdown: It would be amazing if “Abbott Elementary’s” Quinta Brunson took this (don’t worry she’ll be rewarded down the page), but there’s almost no way “Hacks’” Jan Smart is losing this one.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Killing EveJodie Comer as VillanelleOzarkLaura Linney as Wendy ByrdeYellowjacketsMelanie Lynskey as ShaunaKilling EveSandra Oh as Eve PolastriThe Morning ShowReese Witherspoon as Bradley Jackson
Who will win: ZendayaWho should win: Zendaya, Melanie LynskeyUpset: Melanie LynskeyLowdown: “Euphoria” somehow earned 16 nominations. If the Television Academy is going to reward it anywhere it’s in a second win for star Zendaya, perhaps the only universally praised performance/aspect of the HBO series.