Is it wrong to ask for just a mildly competitive Best Actor race? Just once? Granted, we’ve had them before. The 2015 class, in particular, saw arguably five potential winners snubbed from a nomination. But, for the most part, the actors making the final five have featured, at most, one surprise, if at all, in the decade since. The 2025 Oscars class does not look like it will break that streak.
READ MORE: Best Picture Contenders and Predictions for 2025
At the moment, there are three locks for a nod. They are such a given that Vegas sportsbooks shouldn’t let people bet on them (don’t worry, they will). The three easy entries are Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave“), Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”), and Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”). The good news is that the race for the win among this trio is, arguably, quite close at this early stage. At least the other two slots are mildly interesting.
Sight unseen, many, including this pundit, are assuming Timothee Chalamet is landing a nomination for portraying Bob Dylan in James Mangold’s “A Complete Unknown.” Part of the assumption is Mangold’s track record with Oscar nominations and actors in general. Angelina Jolie won Supporting Actress for “Girl, Interrupted,” Reese Witherspoon won Best Actress for “Walk the Line” while Joaquin Phoenix was nominated in this category for the same film, and “3:10 to Yuma” earned a competitive SAG Ensemble nomination in 2008. Chamalet is also a previous nominee in this category for “Call Me By Your Name.” It’s also not a reach to believe Searchlight wouldn’t be dropping “Unknown” in theaters this December if they didn’t think they had a Best Picture nominee (and more) on their hands. Still, Chalalet could falter as an Oscar candidate.
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The other contender in the wings is Daniel Craig, who stars in Luca Guadagnino’s “Queer.” Craig is quite good in this A24 acquisition, but he didn’t take Best Actor at the Venice Film Festival, and it’s unclear how the industry or AMPAS members will take to the most surreal film in Guadagnino’s career (which is something considering that wild “Suspiria” remake is on his resume). If Craig campaigns hard for it, he likely will make it, but if he doesn’t? A door is opened. For who, however, is a massive question mark.
John David Washington has a shot for reprising his Broadway role in his little brother’s big-screen adaptation of “The Piano Lesson.” Depending on how the election turns out, Sebastian Stan has an outside chance for “The Apprentice.” Jharrel Jerome is super impressive in “Unstoppable,” but will enough members see it? Ethan Herisse is quite good in “Nickel Boys,” but while he’s heard, he’s not on screen for much of the film. Jesse Eisenberg is under-the-radar good in his directorial effort, “A Real Pain,” but will his energy be in the Original Screenplay race? Cannes Best Actor Jesse Plemmons deserves a nomination for “Kinds of Kindness,” but will anyone campaign for the movie at all? And, if this was five years ago, would we all be talking about Anthony Hopkins as a lock for the word-of-mouth global hit tearjerker, “One Life”?
Perhaps Tom Hanks or Paul Mescal will surprise in “Here” or “Gladiator II,” respectively. Or, maybe either “September 5” star Peter Skarsgaard or John Magaro should campaign for lead instead of supporting. Not that we’re making educated suggestions or anything. [Posted October 2]
Frontrunners
Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Almost There
Daniel Craig, “Queer”
Timothee Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”*
In The Mix
Jon David Washington, “The Piano Lesson”
Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”
Jharrel Jerome, “Unstoppable”
Ethan Herisse, “Nickel Boys”
Jesse Eisenberg, “A Real Pain”
Jesse Plemmons, “Kinds of Kindness”
Sebastian Stan, “A Different Man”
Longshots
Anthony Hopkins, “One Life”
Gabriel LaBelle, “Saturday Night”
Tom Hanks, “Here”*
Timothee Chalamet, “Dune: Part Two”
Andrew Garfield, “We Live In Time”
Paul Mescal, “Gladiator II”*
Glen Powell, “Hit Man”
Kingsley Ben-Adir, “Bob Marley: One Love”
*Not screened for industry or media by publication