We’ve seen enough. It’s time to rank the Best Picture players for the 2025 Academy Awards. This year’s race may still be unsettled, but Sean Baker’s “Anora” has rolled through festival season, earning genuine adoration and respect. It arrives in limited release on Friday with a chance to notch one of the top per-screen averages of the year. If AMPAS and guild members weren’t aware of it already, those box office headlines should grab their attention. So, NEON has a legitimate frontrunner. The question remains how long it can retain that crown and what movies will make the category cut. One film that is now decidedly in the mix for a nomination debuted at the London Film Festival last week, Steve McQueen’s “Blitz.”
READ MORE: “Blitz” Review: Steven McQueen’s WWII London bombing drama is dazzling [NYFF]
Inspired by real events that occurred during the eight months between Sept 1940 and May 1941 when Nazi Germany bombed London incessantly, McQueen’s film follows a young boy, George (newcomer Elliott Heffernan), who is sent by his mother Rita (Saoirse Ronan), to the English countryside for safekeeping. Unhappy with this turn of events, George jumps off his train and attempts to find his way back home, with the threat of deadly attacks growing as the sun begins to set. Along the way, he encounters a wide breadth of Londoners, and not all of them have good intentions.
The movie has earned positive reviews so far (currently a 71 on Metacritic with just 24 reviews) which is a win in this wide-open season. Saoirse Ronan, also campaigning for Best Actress in “The Outrun,” has a legitimate shot for a Supporting Actress nod, and, at worst, the film should be a major below-the-line player. Adam Stockhausen‘s production design is stellar, two-time Oscar winner Jacqueline Durran‘s costume designs are top-tier, and Yorick Le Saux‘s cinematography is genuinely impressive. The movie will also be in play for Sound, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Visual Effects. Plus, it has a shot at a Best Original Song nomination with “Winter Coat,” written by the one and only Nicholas Britell, Steve McQueen, and Taura Stinson, and performed by Ronan in the movie. Academy favorite Hans Zimmer, a two-time winner and 12-time nominee, could be in play for Original Score, but he likely has a better shot for “Dune, Pt II” or “Mufasa: The Lion King.”
Is “Blitz” a lock for a Best Picture nomination? Not at the moment, but as the season shakes out, its odds could improve. And again, we’re just saying it’s not a lock, only five films likely are at this point. Notably, the film will earn a three-week limited release before hitting Apple TV+ right before Thanksgiving (not a bad time to drop on a streaming service). It’s unclear if they will report box office (the studio did not for the recent short run of “Wolfs”), and exceptional returns in the U.K. certainly wouldn’t hurt their cause. But McQueen’s epic does have its fans and contemporary relevance in two major global warzones. How much should they lean into that? There is no easy answer in these polarizing times.
Despite “Blitz’s” arrival, award season has hit the middle of October, and there are still four major players left to screen: Jon M. Chu’s “Wicked,” Ridley Scott’s “Gladiator II,” James Mangold’s “A Complete Unknown,” and Robert Eggers’ “Nosferatu.” Each of their studios is enthusiastic about their chances, and even if two of them are legit Oscar players, it could flip the rest of the race on its head. Are we looking at an October or November surprise? Ponder.
Keeping that in mind, here’s your latest Contender Countdown.
Oct. 15, 2024
1 “Anora”
A crowd pleaser with great reviews and a Palme d’Or to match. Might be enough in these trying times.
2 “The Brutalist”
The most serious competitor…for now at least.
3 “Conclave”
Another crowd pleaser with stellar reviews. Is it the dark horse? Is there a dark horse?
4 “Emilia Perez”
Has its fans, but the polarizing is bubbling up again.
5 “Dune Part II”
Such a safe nomination bet. The third chapter is gonna need a legit acting nominee contender.
6 “Challengers”
The Brat nominee.
7 “The Room Next Door”
Gonna stick with the older members of the Academy.
8 “Nickel Boys”
Should ride fantastic reviews and likely some critics’ awards to a nomination.
9 “A Complete Unknown”*
If it’s not a legit player, Searchlight should have waited to release next year. They know that. Do the math.
10 “Blitz”
Borderline, but UK love may be enough to crack the 10.
11 “A Real Pain”
Is more than just a Supporting Actor and Screenplay contender. Needs a big push and solid box office.
12 “September 5”
If Paramount legitimately thinks this is a Best Picture nominee they need to put the pedal to the metal now because not enough guild members know it even exists.
13 “Gladiator II”*
We’ll know more soon. Pt. 1
14 “Wicked”*
We’ll know more soon. Pt. 2
15 “Sing Sing”
Could easily make the ten. It’s likely making our own top 10 list of the year. Will enough members watch it though?
16 “Civil War”
Will surprise or end up in the “coulda shoulda woulda” pile for this decade.
17 “Hard Truths”
Likely just a Marianne Jean-Baptiste and Original Screenplay contender, but we wouldn’t be mad if it jumps up the standings.
18 “The Piano Lesson”
Potentially Danielle Deadwyler‘s Oscar moment.
19 “Nosferatu”*
Focus believes, but will it arrive too late to crack the 10?
20 “Saturday Night”
We are at a loss. The limited-release rollout simply killed any awards momentum it might have had.
And for those wondering about Robert Zemekis’ “Here” or Clint Eastwood’s “Juror No. 2,” the word is there is little need to expend any energy on either’s prospects.
*Has not been screened at publication