An October, well, November surprise has arrived this awards season. Jon M. Chu’s “Wicked,” which some early box office forecasts have penciled in for a $100 million+ U.S. opening the weekend of November 14, has screened for select members of the media and the current Broadway cast. A formal review is prohibited, but we are currently allowed to discuss its charms in terms of awards season. And that surprise we just mentioned? It’s none other than Ariana Grande.
READ MORE: “Anora” and “Nickel Boys” top 2024 Gotham Awards nominations
Let’s be clear. We know she can be funny. Grande has shown impressive comic chops by hosting “Saturday Night Live” twice. In fact, her appearance earlier this month is the sort of standout gig that earns someone a Guest Actress in a Comedy Series Emmy nomination. And she began her career as a Nickelodeon star, but this? This is something entirely different. Grande, who is campaigning for Supporting Actress, is often a euphoric beacon of light as Glinda in this “Wizard of Oz” prequel. She’s not doing a Kristin Chenoweth impersonation or playing a stereotypical ditzy, popular girl princess type. The pop megastar often delivers startling depth to her character before jumping into a musical number that will have you grinning from ear to ear. You sort of can’t believe what you’re watching.
The Breakdown: Sign up for Gregory Ellwood’s new newsletter column launching in November and Get Oscar Predictions before they are posted online
You also can’t really say it’s a “star is born” moment because, well, Grande currently has 82 million monthly Spotify listeners, released six no. 1 albums in the U.S., nine no. 1 singles on the Billboard Hot 100, and two Grammys, among other achievements. That being said, and despite the fact this is the sort of performance that will make studio executives take her much more seriously as a movie star. Assuming that’s a road she even wants to take. As for awards season, she, like her co-star Cynthia Erivo and the movie itself, is a lock for numerous Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards nominations. But a SAG Award, BAFTA Award, and, yes, Oscar nomination are absolutely possible. Can she campaign? Does she want to? That’s the question.
Erivo, previously nominated for Best Actress and Original Song in 2020 for “Harriet,” might have a shot for a Best Actress nom any other year, but the 2025 class is so insanely competitive it’s a major longshot (and there will already be a long line of snubbed contenders). Luckily for her, Elphaba’s character should drive the narrative in the second installment of the movie, arriving next year. Notably, if “Wicked” is a big enough hit, it could crack the Best Picture 10. Especially if some of the expected contenders falter. Do not discount this.
From a below-the-line perspective, Sound, Costumes, Hair and Makeup, and Visual Effects (make sense when you see the movie) are genuine plays. Production Design remains to be seen. Then again, Nathan Crowley is a six-time Oscar nominee, most recently for “Tenet.” Is “Wicked” too close to his “Wonka” aesthetic tho? His peers will be the judge of that. Despite strong visuals, Alice Brooks has a very outside chance at a Cinematography nomination. The category is just too cutthroat this time around.
Oh, and for those playing at home, there is no original song in this first “Wicked.” Whether there is one in the second part remains to be seen.
As for the current state of the Best Picture race, things are in flux. Robert Eggers’ “Nosferatu” and James Mangold’s “A Complete Unknown” have still not been screened publicly (although one will be revealed very soon). “Gladiator II,” which had a splashy debut a little over 10 days ago, may just be a Denzel Washington and crafts play unless it’s an even bigger hit than already expected. Brady Corbet’s “The Brutalist” and Edward Berger’s “Conclave” chances for a win are rising, but overall, we may not know where the top 7 (let alone 10) land until after Thanksgiving.
Before we jump into the current Best Picture rankings, a note that starting Nov. 11, you’ll be able to read these predictions in my new newsletter, The Breakdown, before they appear online. The column will run on Mondays and Thursdays (or Fridays if needed). Sign up here and tell your friends. Oh, and it’s free.
Keeping all that in mind, here’s the latest edition of the Contender Countdown.
October 29, 2024
_____
1 “Anora”
Keeps trucking along but why does every member tell me it’s not winning?
2 “The Brutalist”
The more people who see it the more…
3 “Conclave”
Great opening weekend. The better the box office, the better it’s shot at the top.
4 “Dune: Part Two”
A lot of guild people came out for the LA residency screenings last week for a movie that was released in February.5 “Emilia Perez”
If you don’t think it’s still polarizing, you weren’t part of the Gotham Awards voting committee. Netflix will still find the passion to get it a ton of noms.
6 “Challengers”
Just you wait.
7 “A Complete Unknown”*
The buzz is good. Watch out for Monica Barbaro in Supporting Actress.
8 “Nickel Boys”
Three Gotham Awards noms including Feature and Director. Don’t be surprised if it wins NYFCC or LAFCA.
9 “A Real Pain”
Watch that Metacritic score this week. And the limited per screen this weekend.
10 “Blitz”
Likely won’t report box office which doesn’t help (or necessarily hurt), but below-the-line support might be the Apple release’s secret weapon.
11 “September 5”
The good news is influential AMPAS members are showing up at screenings. Let’s see how big a campaign Paramount can pull off on short notice.
12 “Sing Sing”
Can Colman Domingo carry this to a BP nomination on his own?
13 “Wicked”
It will be massive at the box office. Will enough viewers who didn’t know the musical like it enough to pull it across the finish line?
14 “Nosferatu”*
We’ll know sooner rather than later.
15 “Hard Truths”
Don’t count this one out.
16 “Gladiator II”
If it’s a massive enough hit anything is possible.
17 “The Piano Lessond”
A Danielle Deadwyler play all the way, but Netflix hasn’t given up on more.
18 “Civil War”
Let’s see what happens after election day and on January 6th.
19 “The Substance”
Likely a red herring, but…
20 “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
Just need general voting members to see it. Sadly, the Gotham Awards snub doesn’t help.