This Emmys season was supposed to be a dud. The decidedly weak Drama and Comedy Series categories were supposed to be enough of an embarrassment to make the Television Academy reconsider allowing eight nominees for each. What a difference three months make. The Comedy Series category may not be all wrapped up, in a category switch the Drama Series field landed a likely nominee which would be a historically strong winner, and two late-arriving programs may upend the already insanely competitive Limited Series field.
READ MORE: “Baby Reindeer,” “Ripley” and “Shogun” top 2024 TCA Awards nominations
The big news that rocked Emmy season was FX’s “Shogun” moving from Limited or Anthology Series to Drama. A massive streaming hit for the Disney division, this happened by the skin of the network’s teeth. The network wrapped up securing two more seasons with the estate of James Clavell right before the submission deadline of May 9. Already the most critically acclaimed program in the category, “Shogun” has an excellent chance of taking down the final season of “The Crown” which was expected to cruise to a win in September. It also means there is a chance FX could take Drama Series, Comedy Series (“The Bear”), and, potentially, Limited or Anthology Series (“Fargo”).
But we’re getting ahead of ourselves because there is another program that dropped on this year’s Emmy Season like a 3.5 Richter scale earthquake centered somewhere in Van Nuys…
Can “Baby Reindeer” survive the controversy?
Listen, no one from Netflix ever thought the Richard Gadd-spearheaded limited series would ever be this big. And if they said they did, don’t believe them. The program was filmed way back in the summer of 2022 (it was held for basically a year) and up until its streaming explosion in the U.K. and U.S. was potentially an International Emmy submission, let alone a U.S. one. So, out of the blue, critical acclaim and word-of-mouth popularity gave Netflix yet another Limited Series player alongside “Ripley” (a Showtime castoff) and the now-faded (sadly) “One Day.” But then Fiona Muir-Harvey, who allegedly is the inspiration for the character of Martha in the series, started to make waves. First, it was a Piers Morgan interview and, just last week, a lawsuit filed in a Los Angeles court that is asking for $17 million in damages. Of course, there are lots of questions about this lawsuit (Gadd is not named, why wasn’t it filed in the U.K., etc.), but, at worst, it’s an ugly shakedown attempt in the middle of Emmy voting that isn’t going away. No one doubts that “Reindeer,” which cracked the top 10 of Netflix’s all-time Most Popular TV (English) list this week, will earn a slew of nods. The issue is whether questions on just how much of the series is a “True Story” is actually “true” will affect voting in August. Does having Gadd address it make it worse? Are the legal ramifications too big to ignore? Will Television Academy members even care? Ponder.
Is “Under the Bridge” the surprise Limited Series contender?
Another late entry to the Limited or Anthology Series field was Hulu’s “Under the Bridge.” Starring Lily Gladstone, Riley Keough, and a slew of talented teenage actors, the (genuinely) true-life was a surprise hit for the streamer (at least from a media perspective) and earned strong reviews. In a case of a recency bias, it has an excellent shot of bypassing more high-profile players such as HBO’s “The Sympathizer” or Apple TV+’s “Lessons in Chemistry” to make the final five. Limited or Anthology Series is a brutal category this year (it really needs eight permanent nominees), but don’t be surprised if “Bridge” somehow finds a way to sneak in.
Will “Shogun” upend the Drama Series categories?
As noted earlier, there was a moment this calendar year when the Drama Series field was historically thin. Like, unhealthily thin. A nominee field that might embarrass the nominees who end up being nominated. It’s not a done deal (beware the power of Netflix and “The Crown”), but “Shogun” provides a much more respectable winner and (likely) pushes out a nominee that wouldn’t have a chance any other year. That being said the move is also a big win for stars Anna Sawai, Hiroyuki Sanada, Cosmo Jarvis, Moeka Hoshi, and Tadanobu Asano, who should all earn acting nominations now for their performances. And Sanada has an excellent shot at playing spoiler for Gary Oldman in the Lead Actor in a Drama Series category. “Shogun” could now easily take Directing, Writing, Production Design, Cinematography and Editing Emmys as well.
If “The Traitors” makes the Reality Competition Series cut, what show doesn’t?
There were six nominees in 2022, but for the most part, the Reality Competition Category has only qualified with five representatives in three out of the past four years. Assuming there are just five this year and that “The Traitors,” a massive streaming hit for Peacock that has been campaigning like crazy, makes the field, who doesn’t? “RuPaul’s Drag Race,” last year’s winner and the winner five of the last six years, should be safe. As should “The Amazing Race” which hasn’t missed a nom since this category was created 21 years ago. “Top Chef,” which won in 2010, has been nominated 17 straight years previously. “The Voice” has been nominated for 12 straight years and won four times in 2013, 2015, 2016, and 2017. Is “Survivor” out? CBS’ other legendary competition show earned its first nod last year since 2006. Will it be relegated to the pack? Will the category expand to six nominees or will Netflix’s “Squid Game: The Challenge” surprise everyone and crash the party?
Will “Lessons in Chemistry” be forgotten?
Speaking of “Chemistry,” is Apple TV+’s fall release in trouble? Considering how well it did with year-end guild voters taking PGA, WGA, and SAG Award nominations as well as winning a DGA Award in its category, you would think it’s safe. Again, perhaps recency bias is at play, but outside of a late-stage billboard campaign, the heat on the Brie Larson period piece seems to have faded. Maybe there’s just so much noise around its competition that it’s been unfairly underestimated. With 20,000 voters you never really know, do you?
Can “Hacks” take down “The Bear”?
Whether it’s the Emmys or year-end guild awards, there always seems to be one or two television programs that dominate the cycle. Recent programs that have swept the circuit include “Modern Family,” “The Queen’s Gambit,” “Schitt’s Creek,” “Succession,” “Ted Lasso,” and, most recently, “Beef.” After the past six months, you can also add “The Bear” to that list. It won every major category at the delayed 2023 Emmys which took place only weeks before the year-end guild awards where it won every major guild honor. But just a few months later, can the last HBO MAX, er, MAX show standing, “Hacks,” kick it off thrown the Comedy Series throne? After a two-year delay, the Jean Smart and Einbinder-led program returned with a vengeance earning the best reviews of its run so far and ending on a killer season finale/cliffhanger. That being said, FX’s binge player has an advantage in this showdown of beloved titans. Season 3 will drop this month, giving it a leg up with fans getting to watch new episodes before they vote on season two. To say that worked like a dream last year when season two dropped before members voted on season one is an understatement. But you never know what can happen in phase 2. And if HBO Max wants to spend, they could just pull it off.
Which newcomer is making the Comedy Series cut?
There are likely five nomination locks for Comedy Series beginning with January’s winner, “The Bear,” as well as the aforementioned “Hacks,” “Only Murders in the Building,” “Abbott Elementary,” and, in its last season, “Curb Your Enthusiasm.” The other three slots are…curious. In theory, “What We Do In The Shadows,” which was nominated in 2020 and 2021 has an excellent shot of returning to the fold. That leaves room for two more. Will the critically revered and two-time Peabody Award winner “Reservation Dogs” finally make the cut for its last go around? Can Netflix’s massive new hit “The Gentleman” crack the eight? Will Apple TV+’s recently renewed “Palm Royale” score a nom? Or can the Aussie underdog and Gotham Awards winner “Colin from Accounts” be a Paramount+ surprise? All we know is that it’s a tougher nomination to land than FX and the “Reservation” team ever thought it would be.
Can “Fallout” earn a Drama Series nomination?
Like Comedy Series, “Shogun’s” arrival has settled out some of the very likely nominees for Drama Series. Beyond the FX hit, the final season of “The Crown,” Apple TV+’s Emmy-friendly “The Morning Show,” and HBO’s “The Gilded Age” should easily make it. Beyond that, things get very, very interesting. Apple TV+’s “Slow Horses” seemed like a lock months ago because of a weak field, but with more competition we are reminded that it’s first two seasons didn’t earn one Emmy nomination. Not one. Prime Video’s “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” is a substantial hit for the streamer and earned critical kudos, but is it enough of a “drama” for voters? And can the same be said for the Showtime-Paramount+-A24 player “The Curse”? (Also, did enough members even watch “The Curse”?) And what about the massive, massive arrival of “Fallout”? If “The Boys” can earn a Drama Series nomination we’re not sure how “Fallout,” a much bigger hit and just as well-reviewed, can’t either. That leaves “3 Body Problem,” a solid Netflix player that has little industry passion surrounding it, and Disney+’s second season of “Loki,” which deserves much more industry love than its received so far. Two of these series are going to be snubbed, but which two?
Voting for the 2024 Primetime Emmy Awards begins on June 13 and ends on June 24 at 10:00 PM PT. The 76th Emmy Awards will be announced on July 17.