Avatar Torpedoes Past 2 Billion

In a recent article of ours, on the eve of its release, we made a few speculative predictions as to just how big of a success Avatar: The Way of Water would go on to be. That article, featuring ballpark guestimations of the film’s domestic and global openings, as well reasonable final totals presumed therefrom, was also intended as a reminder to never bet against director James Cameron. We followed our own advice, and published our pragmatic, but optimistic final gross predictions. We nailed the domestic opening weekend, but Cameron has still managed a way to have us return to Beyond the Screen with the proverbial tail between our legs. Avatar: The Way of Water is a juggernaut.

In the intervening month, the film has managed in short order to overtake not only the year’s top grosser (Top Gun: Maverick), but the enormous takings of Spider-Man: No Way Home as well. This means that the latest Avatar is the highest grossing release of pandemic era, standing at a staggering $2,024,409,459.

With this in mind, the film has a long shot at finishing near $2.3 billion, which would secure it a placement at 10th on the all-time-grossers list when adjusted for inflation, which might be pushing it, but that would be the talk of someone who hasn’t learned anything from Cameron’s last 8 overperformances.

Given trends at the box office as of late, with counterprogramming falling to the wayside as splashy blockbusters stake their claim over audience attention, you couldn’t be blamed for assuming that all competing releases during this time would have underperformed. Certainly, there are examples, but on the whole, a number of movies have squeaked by and made at least something resembling a box office run. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, seemingly powered by excellent word of mouth, opened to a decent $12,429,515, but has held well enough to cross $300 million (making for an over 10 times multiplier).

A Man Called Otto, fueled by the ‘still-got-it’ central performance of Tom Hanks, has won over older audiences, a sorely missed demographic, who’ve dished out $57.6 million so far. Babylon, after a truly disastrous December opening of $3,603,368 in North American theatres, has shored up an improved performance internationally by matching its domestic total, standing at a global gross of $30,796,698. Still, this is small consolation to Paramount, footing a potential production plus marketing bill of $160 million, meaning the break-even point is around $250 million. Ouch.

Razzie Nominations Announced

The Razzies don’t do a lot of homework. They find their laughingstocks of choice (easier to do these days when hundreds of thousands of Twitter users ‘dunk’ on films they have never and will never see), before proceeding to pick on them relentlessly. This year, the crud of the crop is Blonde with 8 nominations, worst picture, worst director and worst screenplay among them. Good Mourning, a vehicle for and by Machinegun Kelly, isn’t far behind with its 7 placements, followed closely by Disney’s live-action Pinocchio, with 6.

Tom Hanks drew deuces for worst actor in Elvis, and worst supporting actor for Pinocchio (matched by Pete Davidson for his voicework in Netflix’s Marmaduke and Good Mourning).

As ever, the nominees weren’t without controversy. 12-year-old actress Ryan Kiera Armstrong had been nominated for Worst Actress, before an outpouring of criticism moved the Razzies to introduce a new Age Limit for future ballots, thereby rescinding Armstrong’s nod. This seems only fair, especially considering Armstrong was among the least of Firestarter’s missteps.

Contending for Worst Picture are: Blonde, Good Mourning, Disney’s Pinocchio, Morbius and The King’s Daughter. Watch the announcement video below:

Oscar Nominees Announced

Everything, Everywhere All at Once leads with 11 nominations (an overperformance thanks to its surprise features in the Original Song and Score categories), making it the odds-on favourite to take home Best Picture. All Quiet on the Western Front made good on its ever-presence throughout the runup to the Academy Awards, netting 9 nominations, a tie with The Banshees of Inisherin.

The cumulative box office of the Best Picture category, increasingly opined for including ‘underseen’ films, is the highest ever recorded (powered essentially exclusively by Avatar: The Way of Water and Top Gun: Maverick).

Among the biggest surprises of the announcements: the underperformance of Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio, which many expected to cross over into Original Score and Song, while the Cinematography category could be categorized as… strange, featuring only a few of the leading nominees, and excluding Top Gun: Maverick, once the odds-on favourite to win. Netflix’s The Sea Beast took precedence over Netflix’s Wendell and Wild in the Animated Feature category, while The Whale missed out on its presumed Adapted Screenplay nomination. Our own Oliver Hermanus’ Living is present in this category, as is the performance of Bill Nighy for Actor in a Leading Role. Women Talking has the curious combination of Adapted Screenplay and Best Picture.

Yet no upset outshined the appearance of Andrea Riseborough in the Actress in a Leading Role category for her work on To Leslie as an alcoholic lottery jackpot winner who proceeds to squander her winnings, following a major for-your-consideration campaign largely mounted within the last few weeks.

Viewers can look forward to the live musical performances at this year’s ceremony, featuring Lady Gaga, Rihanna and best of all the team behind Naatu Naatu (Kala Bhairava, Rahul Sipligunj and M. M. Keeravani) which, barring horrific unforeseen circumstances, is set to blow the roof off of the Dolby Theatre.

BEST PICTURE

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Women Talking

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Austin Butler (Elvis)

Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

Paul Mescal (Aftersun)

Bill Nighy (Living)

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Cate Blanchett (Tár)

Ana de Armas (Blonde)

Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)

Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)

Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)

Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)

Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)

Hong Chau (The Whale)

Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Marcel the Shell With Shoes On

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

The Sea Beast

Turning Red

ANIMATED SHORT FILM

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

The Flying Sailor

Ice Merchants

My Year of Dicks

An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

CINEMATOGRAPHY

All Quiet on the Western Front

Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths

Elvis

Empire of Light

Tár

COSTUME DESIGN

Babylon

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

DIRECTING

Todd Field (Tár)

Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness)

Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

All That Breathes

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Fire of Love

A House Made of Splinters

Navalny

DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM

The Elephant Whisperers

Haulout

How Do You Measure a Year?

The Martha Mitchell Effect

Stranger at the Gate

FILM EDITING

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Germany, All Quiet on the Western Front

Argentina, Argentina, 1985

Belgium, Close

Poland, EO

Ireland, The Quiet Girl

LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

An Irish Goodbye

Ivalu

Le Pupille

Night Ride

The Red Suitcase

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

The Whale

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

Applause from Tell It like a Woman

Hold My Hand from Top Gun: Maverick

Lift Me Up from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Naatu Naatu from RRR

This Is a Life from Everything Everywhere All at Once

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

All Quiet on the Western Front

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

PRODUCTION DESIGN

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

Elvis

The Fabelmans

SOUND

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Elvis

Top Gun: Maverick

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

All Quiet on the Western Front

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Living

Top Gun: Maverick

Women Talking

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Triangle of Sadness

VISUAL EFFECTS

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Top Gun: Maverick