You get a strike, you get a strike, everybody gets a strike!

Studios look to be in loads of trouble for 2024, and they have only themselves to blame. Should their bulbous pockets weigh them down and render them unable to fairly compensate the artists who line those pockets for much longer, 2024 will be one of the most drastically barren slates in Hollywood history (2020 aside). The DGA have come to a tentative agreement, and as such they look to be backing off from joining their comrades in arms, but SAG-AFTRA are heading into negotiations with a massive advantage: the entire body has voted 97% in favour of authorising a strike. What might this mean for the 2024 movie slate?

Everything filming is disadvantaged in the same way: there can be no improvising, no tweaking, nothing that would be considered altering the letter of the screenplay. Of course, these sorts of changes will more than likely happen on the down-low, though those involved are unlikely to escape scrutiny should the strike linger on into the 2024 release slate. ‘Scabbing’ does not go over well in L.A. Deadpool 3 in particular, being not only a high-profile release, but wildly reliant on improvisation over the course of several takes, would be in peril. Ryan Reynolds’ off-the-cuff remarks often replace the tepid quips of Deadpool scripts, as evidenced by the onslaught of outtakes audiences are greeted with post-release. With this, the merc with a mouth’s transition to Disney seems to be in more jeopardy than we thought. The much-publicised Beetlejuice sequel (currently simply titled Beetlejuice 2) sits in much the same boat, with a returning Keaton in the title role unable to quip on the fly. All things considered, given Disney’s massive post-production workflow, Michael Mouse is once again in a better position than most, with a backlog of projects that have already been shot. Even on the front of a major release like Captain America: Brave New World (or New World Order, Anthony Mackie recently confused the subject via his Instagram), which is filming as we speak, it’s worth recalling that the MCU is mapped out within an inch of its life as it is. Deviating from the script is not the norm, and as such, unless SAG-AFTRA’s strike interrupts production, Captain America 4 is unlikely to be delayed.

Worse off are films still being rewritten, among them some of their studios’ highest hopes. Consider: Avatar 3: The Way of Whatever Biome James Cameron Wants To Explore From Within An Entirely Blue Room Next, which has had a completed script, and much of which has already been filmed. Following the massive turnout for Avatar: The Way of Water, Cameron has elected to adapt the current script to favour the elements of The Way of Water which the public responded to most (and this goes without saying but, probably downplay elements which were criticised). It’s anyone’s guess what precisely these alterations entail, whether Cameron would feel comfortable ploughing ahead with the previous draft of the script, whether he’ll adapt the much-maligned character of Spider, but we should bare in mind that the writer-director has already spent well over a decade perfecting his Pandoran production; he may well call timeout.

Then we have productions on the cusp of a grand finale, set up by previous instalments (many just this year), which have yet to film and are in dire-straits considering the looming SAG-AFTRA strike. The currently filming Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part Two, for instance, could hardly move forward without a Tom Cruise to hurl off of something tall. Or The Fast and the Furious Part 11: Fast X Part II, which would pick up immediately following a major cliffhanger at the close of Part One, set for early 2025 after some wishful 2024 predictions. Delays are likely to affect the performance of all of these films, whose releases have been carefully timed to follow their prior instalments so as to pique public interest. So too for Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-verse, perhaps the most anticipated film of 2024, which is set for a March release. This is looking increasingly unlikely, as co-star Hailee Steinfeld announced she has yet to record any of her lines, a concerning prospect since her work on the previous instalment spanned about 4 years of recording.

Then there are the projects which seem hard to place. Gladiator 2 has next to no chance of making its 2024 release, languishing in pre-production and soon unable to do so much as continue the casting process. Photographs from locations for the film have only just begun to surface. Sonic the Hedgehog 3’s release date too seems not long for this world, since casting on this entry is of major importance; the series-villain Dr. Eggman won’t be joining to round out the trilogy (Jim Carrey seems satisfied with the prior two pay checks). Wicked is filming, but if the musical is a largely straight adaptation things should go smoothly enough, depending on the SAG-AFTRA situation. Thunderbolts is comparable to the other MCU projects currently filming. Mufasa: The Lion King is in pre-production and almost certainly will be delayed, which is bad for Disney (they want the Lion King to become a Star Wars-style cinematic universe) but is good for humanity for the same reasons.

Kung-Fu Panda 4 is listed as “filming”, which is a funny way to put it, but that certainly communicates a state of production vulnerable to either the writers’ strike and/or that of the actors, despite a planned release in March of next year. Same goes for Garfield, on which there is no indication any voicework has been recorded. The rebooted Blade is filming, but has already been delayed several times. It may make its date, it may not, but considering the amount of changes this project has undergone already, it’s tough to imagine that the script or cast are totally, unalterably final at this stage. The Twister reboot is filming as well, though the cast seems to be in flux, but the VFX team could probably use an extension on that deadline (hahahaha, joking, there’s no way a studio would ever cut them any slack).

The next Safdie Brothers project has been officially “paused indefinitely” due to the writer’s strike. Transformers One, an origin story of sorts, is filming, and considering the Transformers scripts have never made any sense, it’d be headline news if the project were delayed for rewrites, though should Transformers: Rise of the Beasts flop, some scrambling may be in order. Inside Out 2 doesn’t stand a chance of making its 2024 release based on the progress of production as we know it to be today. One Love, a Bob Marley biopic should make 2024, if not its January date, provided it requires exactly zero reshoots.

The Conjuring: Last Rites is far from its last writes, so we can expect a delay there as well. So too with Untitled Spider-Man Sequel and A Quiet Place: Day One. Additionally, Tom Holland has announced a year-long hiatus from acting. Passion of the Christ: Resurrection (which genuinely seems to be the title they’re going with) will likely suffer delays, and we will likely suffer plagues as a result. Sister Act 3: Kicking the Habit is in a similar position; God could not be contacted for comment. National Treasure 3, which has been announced but hasn’t so much as entered pre-production, doesn’t stand a chance, not in the least because there are likely next to no actors more committed to their profession, and its being treated fairly, than Nicolas Cage.

2024 seems a longshot for The Hunchback of Notre-Dame, which has been announced, same for a new Karate Kid and Knives Out 3. That last one is a stickler, since Netflix, among the most ardent holdouts against the demands of the WGA, has exclusive rights to the franchise, but there will be no Knives Out films without the involvement of Rian Johnson and Daniel Craig. Saddest of all, the next film by Jordan Peele was tentatively slated for release at the very end of 2024, which seems an increasingly unlikely prospect.

The one front on which studios can, for the moment, relax would be the DGA (the Directors Guild of America), who have reached a “tentative agreement” with them and streamers alike. How long is all this likely to go on? Well, this comes down to a question of what’s more likely to budge: the cost of living crisis, or the studios and streamers? Once again it has been made clear, the greatest threat to American film is the producer.