CANNES – If you were to have asked us just 48 hours ago whether we believed Cannes would be sending another Best Picture nominee to the Academy Awards we would have been hesitant to answer yes. Now, following Sean Baker’s “Anorma” winning the Palme d’Or, it looks like Cannes’ Oscar streak will continue. Especially if NEON has anything to say about it.
READ MORE: Sean Baker’s “Anora” wins the Palme d’Or at the 2024 Cannes Film Festival [Complete List]
The independent distributor has now secured North American distribution for five straight Palme d’Or winners beginning with “Parasite” in 2019. Out of those previous four, only “Titane” didn’t make the Best Picture cut. Moreover, the festival has had six Best Picture nominees since 2018. The only year it missed out was the 2021 Oscar season when the 2020 festival was canceled due to the COVID pandemic. But, with almost 3/4’s of the jury consistently being Academy Members over that period (mostly due to the fact AMPAS massively increased its international membership in the last decade), the chances of a Cannes film cracking through are more and more prevalent. And while “Anora” wasn’t necessarily a slam dunk before the ceremony, if a jury with eight out of nine Academy members on it say they were transported by it and are willing to select it over a brilliant and important political allegory such as “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” well maybe it’s just that much of a crowd pleaser.
In theory, NEON has a potential Best Actress nominee in Mikey Madison while Yuriy Borisov is a long shot in Supporting Actor. Baker is also no stranger to awards season after “The Florida Project” almost made the Best Picture field in 2018 (Willem Dafoe earned a Supporting Actor nomination). He nows what he’s getting into. Whether Baker can land a Best Director nom remains to be seen, but Original Screenplay seems like a good bet. And if it’s a hit? Editing, Cinematography? Sure, anything is possible.
On the acting side, several new contenders will enter the fray including jury Best Actor winner Jesse Plemons for “Kinds of Kindness” and Netflix will have to figure out how to handle the four shared Best Actress winners from their Jaques Audiard musical acquisition “Emilia Perez.” That movie is definitely polarizing (and let’s see what GLAAD thinks about it), but Zoe Saldana deserves some love in the Best Actress race. Selena Gomez will be categorized as a Supporting Actress contender, but that’s gonna be a tough race all around. The biggest question surrounds Karla Sofia Gascon. Is she also lead? Can Netflix get by having the title character in their film campaign in Supporting? (She’d have a better shot than Gomez). As for Adriana Paz, her performance seems too minor comparably to make a dent. Oh, and there is also likely an Original Song contender somewhere in “Perez,” if you can remember it. And maybe a talented Paul Guilhaume will find his way into the Cinematography race.
NEON also has “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” our choice for the Palme, which faces an uphill battle as Iranian’s International Film submission. Director Mohammad Rasoulof is essentially in exile after fleeing the country earlier this month following a politically motivated jail sentence. Plus, “Seed” is a brutal indictment of the current regime in power. Even an “independent” commission will be wary to select it. “Fig” does have a shot in the original screenplay field, however, and the jury threw the movie a bone by giving it a Special Jury Award for Best Screenplay. Could it be a Best Picture player? NEON should try, but not winning the Palme doesn’t help.
The “traditional” Best Screenplay honor went to Coralie Fargeat for “The Substance.” That prestige horror film could absolutely some noise at the Art House box office. Whether AMPAS members will watch it is a different story. Demi Moore and Margaret Qualley are sensational, but it might just be too “horror” for even their peers in the acting branch to screen (see the recent difficulty in campaigning someone like Mia Goth for “Pearl,” Florence Pugh for “Midsommar,” or Toni Collette for “Hereditary”).
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With the threat of a lawsuit from the former president looming, many distributors will likely be wary of acquiring Ali Abbasi’s “The Apprentice.” Despite a fantastic performance from Jeremy Strong and good work from Sebastian Stan, this feels like a release that won’t be sorted out until after the election. And we’re guessing that means sometime in 2025. Then again, maybe a distributor will try to use a potential injunction as a marketing ploy to entice casual audiences to see it. That would be a very expensive strategy in terms of legal fees, but not outside of the realm of possibility.
Other fringe nominee contenders include Renate Reinsve‘s incredible performance in “Armand” (it still does not have U.S. distribution) and another fine turn by Franz Rogowski in Andrea Arnold’s “Bird.” And, of course, there is George Miller’s “Furiosa,” which is another conversation entirely, especially considering a disappointing domestic box office opening. We’ll circle back on that one in our mid-year awards summary in a month or so.
It’s also a strangely weak year in terms of International Film contenders so far. We’ve already discussed the “Sacred Fig” predicament and we’re pretty sure Paolo Sorrentino’s “Parthenope” did not land the reviews A24 was expecting (and it will have competition for Italy’s selection). “Motel Destino” has a shot as Brazil’s submission (fringe shortlist player, at best), Emanuel Pârvu’s “Three Kilometers to the End of the World” should represent Romania while Magnus von Horn’s “The Girl With The Needle” could be submitted by Denmark or Sweden. Guan Hu’s Un Certain Regard-winning “Black Dog” seems like a good bet for China (you’d think) and Payal Kapadia‘s Grand Prix winner “All We Imagine As Light” would be a smart selection for India.
As for France, after flubbing a win by snubbing “Anatomy of a Fall” last year, Cannes’ homeland has a tough decision on its hands. They might be smart to select Matthieu Delaporte and Alexandre de La Patellière’s often thrilling adaptation of “The Count of Monte Cristo.” It’s the sort of commercial epic that would have earned a Best Picture nod 30 years ago. It also benefits from a stellar score by Jérôme Rebotier that is a nomination player if Samuel Goldwyn can put on a legitimate campaign (we’re not so sure they can).
There were also a number of major animated film premieres that will impact the Best Animated Feature race including Michel Hazanavicius’s “The Most Precious of Cargoes” and Gints Zilbalodis’s “Flow,” among others. The former’s subject matter makes it very AMPAS-friendly, but it’s currently still without a distributor (we were shocked when we heard of one player who turned it down). “Flow” is a long shot, but has its fans.
Oh, and Francis Ford Coppola’s “Megalopolis.” Yeah, sorry, that ain’t happening.
So, did the Oscars get a boost from Cannes? Well, it won’t add up to anything like the results the past two years, but some titles from la Croisette should make their way to Hollywood Blvd next March. Place your bets now.
Find complete coverage of the 2024 Cannes Film Festival, including previews, reviews, interviews, and more, on The Playlist.