It may seem as though it’s been an endless Emmy Award season, but that’s not the case. The strike-delayed 2023 ceremony arrived in January, instead of its traditional September date, and less than two months later campaigning for the 2024 season was already starting up. And, at the time, it seemed like this class of nominees might be something of a potential embarrassment for the Television Academy. How things have changed.
READ MORE: Pressing Emmy questions on ‘Shogun,’ ‘Fallout,’ ‘Baby Reindeer’ and more as nomination voting begins
Thanks to the success of “Shogun,” FX’s limited series was renewed for two more seasons and switched to the drama series field. This gave an already super competitive limited or anthology series category some much-needed breathing room (although not enough) and gave the drama field at least one stellar nominee to root for (whew). Moreover, “Baby Reindeer” became the surprise of the season (and you can include Netflix among those surprised) after breaking out into a mini-cultural phenomenon on both sides of the Atlantic. And late arrivals such as “Under the Bridge” and “Fallout,” among others, have added some spice to the mix. Huh. It turns out we may not be looking at a forgettable set of nominees after all.
Keeping all that in mind, here are some informed predictions for the 2024 Emmy Awards nominations. Oh, but don’t you worry. There will be surprises. 20,000 Television Academy voters will make sure of that.
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Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Larry David, “Curb Your Enthusiasm”
Theo James, “The Gentlemen”
Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building”
Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building”
Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”
Snubbed: Kelsey Grammer, “Fraiser,” Jharrel Jerome, “I Am A Virgo,” D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, “Reservation Dogs,” Kayvan Novak, “What We Do In The Shadows”
Lowdown: The fifth nomination is the question here. It might not be James, but we’re not convinced Grammer will take it either. We’ve been down this road with “The Connors” and “And Just Like That…” before. Perennial Emmy favorites in their original runs with legendary actors that couldn’t get one acting nomination. Granted, the “Will & Grace” revival pulled off two acting noms in 2018 for its reboot, but that was another era.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary”
Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear”
Maya Rudolph, “Loot”
Jean Smart, “Hacks”
Kristen Wiig, “Palm Royale”
Snubbed: Selena Gomez, “Only Murders in the Building,” Renee Elise Goldsberry, “Girls5Eva,” Natasia Demetriou, “What We Do In The Shadows,” Devery Jacobs, “Reservation Dogs”
Lowdown: Is this Gomez’s moment? Does she finally land an acting nomination for “Murders” in its third season after being snubbed previously? Or do Emmy favs Rudolph or Wiig make it instead?
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Donald Glover, “Mr. and Mrs. Smith”
Walter Goggins, “Fallout”
Cosmo Jarvis, “Shogun”
Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”
Hiroyuki Sanada, “Shogun”
Dominic West, “The Crown”
Snubbed: Tom Hiddleston, “Loki,” Morgan Spector, “The Gilded Age,” Colin Farrell, “Sugar,” Nathan Fielder, “The Curse”
Lowdown: In reality, only three nominees are truly locks here: Sanada, Oldman, and West. Even Glover is potentially on shaky ground. The question is whether Hiddleston or Farrell’s notoriety can push them over the top or if Television Academy really loved “The Curse” more than we think they did (newsflash: we’re not sure they did).
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Jennifer Aniston, “The Morning Show”
Carrie Coon, “The Gilded Age”
Anna Sawai, “Shogun”
Emma Staunton, “The Crown”
Emma Stone, “The Curse”
Reese Witherspoon, “The Morning Show”
Snubbed: Maya Erskine, “Mr. and Mrs. Smith,” Carrie Preston, “Elsbeth,” Ella Purnell, “Fallout,” Mariska Hargitay, “Law & Order: SVU,” Rebecca Ferguson, “Silo”
Lowdown: Three big questions here. First, is Stone respected enough to make this field even if “The Curse” wasn’t necessarily loved? Second, are both Aniston and Witherspoon seriously making the cut? Third, can Erskine make it considering how popular “Mrs. Smith” was compared to “The Curse”?
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Matt Bomer, “Fellow Travelers”
Richard Gadd, “Baby Reindeer”
Jon Hamm, “Fargo”
Tom Hollander, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans”
Andrew Scott, “Ripley”
Snubbed: Tony Shalhoub, “Mr. Monk’s Last Case,” David Oyelowo, “Lawmen: Bass Reeves,” Austin Butler, “Masters of the Air,” Leo Woodall, “One Day,” Hoa Xuande, “The Sympathizer,” Michael Douglas, “Franklin,” Nicholas Galitzine, “Mary and George”
Lowdown: The only potential party crasher to ponder is Shalhoub and, frankly, there is a lot of evidence the Television Academy adores him.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Jodie Foster, “True Detective: Night Country”
Brie Larson, “Lessons in Chemistry”
Juno Temple, “Fargo”
Sofia Vergara, “Grisella”
Naomi Watts, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans”
Snubbed: Kate Winslet, “The Regime,” Jessica Lange, “The Great Lilian Hall,” Ambika Mod, “One Day,” Nicole Kidman, “Expats,” Julianne Moore, “Mary and George,” Annette Bening, “Apples Never Fall”
Lowdown: If you can find someone who thought “The Regime” was good, please leave a comment below. We’re kidding (sorta). The only reason Winslet could make this five is that it was still watched by more members than the late-arriving “Lillian Hall,” “Expats,” or “Mary and George.”
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Paul W. Downs, “Hacks”
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear”
Oliver Platt, “The Bear”
Paul Rudd, “Only Murders in the Building”
Tyler James Williams, “Abbott Elementary”
Bowen Yang, “Saturday Night Live”
Snubbed: Lionel Boyce, “The Bear,” Chris Perfetti, “Abbott Elementary,” Harvey Guillen, “What We Do In The Shadows,” Matty Matheson, “The Bear”
Lowdown: Even with new rules shrinking this category from seven to six nominees, we’re still only looking at two nominee locks: Moss-Bachrach and Williams. If you believe “The Bear” can get two nominations (or more) than Platt will make it. If you believe “Murders” third season was that popular, than Rudd will make it. If not, Perfetti and Guillen are waiting in the wings.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks”
Abby Elliott, “The Bear”
Allison Janey, “Palm Royale”
Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary”
Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary”
Meryl Streep, “Only Murders in the Builing”
Snubbed: Ego Nwodim, “Saturday Night Live,” Liza Colon-Zayas, “The Bear,” Lisa Ann Walter, “Abbott Elementary,”
Lowdown: We’re not convinced both Elliott and Colon-Zayas give “The Bear” two nominations here. Emmy voter favorite Janey makes it instead.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Khalid Abdalla, “The Crown”
Tadanobu Asano, “Shogun”
Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show”
Jon Hamm, “The Morning Show”
Takehiro Hira, “Shogun”
Jonathan Pryce, “The Crown”
Ke Huy Quan, “Loki”
Snubbed:  Mark Duplass, “The Morning Show,” Benny Safdie, “The Curse,” Alex Sharp, “3 Body Problem”
Lowdown: Pryce, Crudup, and Hamm are probably the only givens. Can “Shogun” really get two nominations? Could “The Morning Show” earn three? Do people think Nathan Lane is seriously getting nominated for “The Gilded Age” here?
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Christine Baranski, “The Gilded Age”
Elizabeth Debicki, “The Crown”
Moeka Hoshi, “Shogun”
Greta Lee, “The Morning Show”
Lesley Manville, “The Crown”
Fumi Nikaido, “Shogun”
Cynthia Nixon, “The Gilded Age”
Snubbed: Um, no one?
Lowdown: Ah, we finally hit a category where either the pickings are slim or there are so many outliers it’s tough to figure out who may surprise. The only real guaranteed nominees are Debicki, Manville, and – maybe – Hoshi.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Jonathan Bailey, “Fellow Travelers”
Finn Bennett, “True Detective: North Country”
Robert Downey, Jr., “The Sympathizer”
John Hawkes, “True Detective: Night Country”
Joe Kerry, “Fargo”
Lewis Pullman, “Lessons in Chemistry”
Treat Williams, “Fargo: Capote vs. the Swans”
Snubbed:  Sam Spruell, “Fargo,”
Lowdown: There are certainly better performances than Williams to nominate, but the 1996 Emmy Award winner had a long and steady history working in television. His contributions will likely be recognized by his peers with a posthumous nomination (see Ray Liotta in this same category a year ago).
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Lily Gladstone, “Under the Bridge”
Jessica Gunning, “Baby Reindeer”
Aja Naomi King, “Lessons in Chemistry”
Diane Lane, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans”
Jennifer Jason Leigh, “True Detective: Night Country”
Nava Mau, “Baby Reindeer”
Kali Reis, “True Detective: Night Country”
Snubbed:  Dakota Fanning, “Ripley,” Riley Keough, “Under the Bridge,” Chloe Sevigny, “Feud: Capote vs. The Swans,” Sandra Oh, “The Sympathizer”
Lowdown: “Under the Bridge” was a bit hit for Hulu and I think it gets recognized with a nom for Gladstone here even if the teen actors are the ones most deserving. If “Ripley” overperforms, Fanning might also benefit.
Outstanding Competition Series
“RuPaul’s Drag Race”
““Top Chef”
“The Amazing Race”
“The Traitors”
“The Voice”
Snubbed: “Survivor,” “Nailed It,” “Squid Game: The Challenge,” “Is It Cake?”
Lowdown: If “The Traitors” is in, and it should be in, who is out? With just five nominees for the second year in a row, it looks like “Survivor” will miss the cut. That being said, “The Voice” or “Top Chef” could also be on the outside looking in.
Outstanding Limited Series or Anthology Series
“Baby Reindeer”
“Fargo”
“Lessons in Chemistry”
“True Detective: Night Country”
“Ripley”
Snubbed: “Under the Bridge,” “Masters of the Air,” “Fellow Travelers,” “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans,” “The Sympathizer”
Lowdown: We still have a gut instinct that Hulu’s big hit “Under the Bridge” could surprise here, but it’s like on the outside looking in. Still, no reason this category shouldn’t be expanded to six or eight nominees a year though.
Outstanding Comedy Series
“Abbott Elementary”
“The Bear”
“Curb Your Enthusiasm”
“The Gentlemen”
“Hacks”
“Only Murders in the Building”
“Reservation Dogs”
“What We Do In The Shadows”
Snubbed: “Palm Royale,” “Colin from Accounts”
Lowdown: Will “Reservation Dogs” finally get a nomination in its final season? Did more Emmy voters like “Palm Royale” than are saying they did? Is there actually any competition here? Ponder.
Outstanding Drama Series
““The Crown”
“The Curse”
“Fallout”
“The Gilded Age”
“The Morning Show”
“Mr. and Mrs. Smith”
“Slow Horses”
“Shogun”
Snubbed: “Loki,” “3 Body Problem”
Lowdown: The fact “Shogun” was able to confirm new seasons to qualify for this category was a godsend. The late arrival of “Fallout” also helps, but it’s a real wild card overall. In theory, this field could have one or two shocking nominees (or not).
The 2023 Primetime Emmy nominations will be revealed on Wednesday, July 12 at 8:30 AM PT/ 11:30 AM ET. Look for full coverage on The Playlist.