Considering the breathless ease of “Everything Everywhere All At Once’s” award season so far, it’s sort of remarkable how many categories are up for grabs when the Academy Awards begin on Sunday evening. Oscar’s top prize is pretty much all locked up and should reward A24 with their second Best Picture win in less than 12 years of existence. An achievement only matched in contemporary times by Orion Pictures and the quickly forgotten Weinstein Company. And, yet, no matter how many AMPAS members you speak to, other category predictions appear to be at the “flip ’em” stage.
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At this point, the only honors that are close to being “locked” are Directing, Animated Feature, Supporting Actor, Visual Effects, International Film, Best Picture, and (maybe) Original Screenplay. That leaves 15 other categories that legitimately could be won by multiple contenders. Frankly, that’s a lot.
When the dust settles most observers will look back and reflect “Of course, they won,” but at the moment it gives The Academy, ABC, telecast producers Glenn Weiss and Ricky Kirshner, and host Jimmy Kimmel some real drama to build the show around. Not something to scoff at when one of the biggest stars in the world won’t be singing at the party. (Hey, at least Rihanna will be on stage.)
Keeping all that in mind, here are some informed predictions for the 95th Academy Awards. And, remember, we’re not responsible if you lose your Oscar party pool.
BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
“All Quiet on the Western Front” Malte Grunert, Producer
“Avatar: The Way of Water” James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
“The Banshees of Inisherin” Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh, Producers
“Elvis” Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick and Schuyler Weiss, Producers
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang, Producers
“The Fabelmans” Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, Producers
“Tár” Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan and Scott Lambert, Producers
“Top Gun: Maverick” Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers
“Triangle of Sadness” Erik Hemmendorff and Philippe Bober, Producers
“Women Talking” Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand, Producers
Who will win: “Everything Everywhere All At Once”Who should win: “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Triangle of Sadness”Upset: “Top Gun: Maverick”Lowdown: A DGA, a PGA, and a SAG win. I mean, that should do it for The Daniels’ indie wonder. Yes, “All Quiet” took BAFTA, but that organization is much more craft heavy than AMPA membership and there also happens to be a war raging in the U.K.’s sightlines. This is “Everything Everywhere’s” to lose and if that somehow happens, it would arguably be the biggest Best Picture upset in Oscar history. And, no, that’s not an exaggeration.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Austin Butler in “Elvis”
Colin Farrell in “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Brendan Fraser in “The Whale”
Paul Mescal in “Aftersun”
Bill Nighy in “Living”
Who will win: Austin ButlerWho should win: Colin FarrellUpset: Brendan Fraser, Colin FarrellLowdown: Fraser was a wee bit of a surprise SAG winner, but Butler took the BAFTA. That provides us with a showdown of “transformational” performances. The Academy clearly loves “Elvis” more than “The Whale” (8 noms including Best Picture for the former to just 3 noms for the latter) which gives Butler the edge. Lurking in the wings is a deserving Farrell who could shock in a split vote, but that’s probably unlikely at this point.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Brendan Gleeson in “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Brian Tyree Henry in “Causeway”
Judd Hirsch in “The Fabelmans”
Barry Keoghan in “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Ke Huy Quan in “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Who will win: Ke Huy QuanWho should win: Barry KeoghanUpset: NoneLowdown: This is one of the biggest locks of the night. Book it.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett in “Tár”
Ana de Armas in “Blonde”
Andrea Riseborough in “To Leslie”
Michelle Williams in “The Fabelmans”
Michelle Yeoh in “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Who will win: Michelle YeohWho should win: Cate Blanchett, Michelle YeohUpset: Cate BlanchettLowdown: Obviously, Blanchett really isn’t an “upset” contender here. This race is probably much closer than Yeoh’s fans want to admit, but we think the outpouring of “Everything Everywhere” love over the last few weeks will propel Yeoh to the win. Blanchett could absolutely pull it off though.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Angela Bassett in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Hong Chau in “The Whale”
Kerry Condon in “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Jamie Lee Curtis in “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Stephanie Hsu in “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Who will win: Kerry CondonWho should win: Kerry Condon, Angela BassettUpset: Angela Bassett, Jamie Lee CurtisLowdown: This is a tough one. We’d be somewhat shocked if Curtis duplicated her SAG win, but SAG and the Oscars have only missed out once since 2010. And, in that instance, the eventual winner (Regina King in 2019) wasn’t nominated for SAG. Yet, it’s easily the weakest performance of the five. AMPAS rarely goes that off base. On the other hand, Bassett lost both SAG and the BAFTA. Can she really pull off the upset here after two similar voting bodies had the chance to reward her? That leaves us with Condon who took the BAFTA in something of a surprise. Moreover, the Oscars and BAFTA have more differentiation in this category than the Oscars and SAG do. Since 2010, they have gone in different directions three times. And yet, our gut says Condon gets “Banshees” on the board. We may come to regret this pick, but c’est la vie.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley
“Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan and Paul Mezey
“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” Joel Crawford and Mark Swift
“The Sea Beast” by Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger
“Turning Red” Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins
Who will win: “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”Who should win: “Turning Red,” “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”Upset: “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”Lowdown: An impressive class and an easy win for del Toro who will earn his third Oscar statue and proves once again he’s the best awards campaigner on the planet.
ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
“All Quiet on the Western Front” James Friend
“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths” Darius Khondji
“Elvis” Mandy Walker
“Empire of Light” Roger Deakins
“Tár” Florian Hoffmeister
Who will win: Mandy Walker (“Elvis”)Who should win: Roger Deakins (“Empire of Light”)Upset: James Friend (“All Quiet on the Western Front”)Lowdown: Friend could certainly win for “All Quiet,” but we have a hunch herstory will be made as Walker becomes the first woman to win the category. Honestly, an embarrassment it took 95 years to happen.
ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
“Babylon” Mary Zophres
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Ruth Carter
“Elvis” Catherine Martin
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” Shirley Kurata
“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” Jenny Beavan
Who will win: Catherine MartinWho should win: Ruth CarterUpset: Mary ZophresLowdown: Martin won for “Moulin Rouge!” and “The Great Gatsby.” We believe a trifecta is in order.
ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
“The Banshees of Inisherin” Martin McDonagh
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
“The Fabelmans” Steven Spielberg
“Tár” Todd Field
“Triangle of Sadness” Ruben Östlund
Who will win: The DanielsWho should win: The Daniels, Ruben ÖstlundUpset: Steven SpielbergLowdown: Spielberg campaigned way too late to make a difference. The Daniels will easily add this to their growing trophy case.