We’re not sure anyone was clamoring for their return, but the Golden Globe Awards are “back.” I mean, sort of. The real secret behind the appeal of the Golden Globes in the 21st Century wasn’t the nominees or the eventual winners. Those were just marketing opportunities for December theatrical releases and wins to throw into the awards ether in hopes it convinced some AMPAS members to vote one way or another (spoiler: not a lot of evidence on the latter). And, from a television perspective, the Globes pretty much peaked when Tina Fey and Amy Poehler hosted from 2013-2015. You could argue that outside of Billy Crystal‘s Oscar run and Neil Patrick Harris‘ Tony Awards era simply no one did it better. Now, after a publicist-spurred takedown, er, “scandal” to encourage more specific diversity the organization has made major changes and NBC has decided to air what was once the biggest party in town once more (likely for the last time).
READ MORE: What’s hot, what’s not in a tight Best Picture race [Contender Countdown]
Of course, what Hollywood cared about was Amy, Tina (and, for some, Ricky Gervais), and the parties afterward. Warner Bros/In Style, HBO, Amazon Studios, Netflix, Universal, 20th Century (Fox), cough, The Weinstein Company. Those were some damn good times if you could get in. Remember when Kobe Bryant showed up at the TWC shindig after a Lakers game? Or when the “Glee” cast danced triumphantly together on the In Style dance floor? Or the year security was so tight that hundreds of partygoers and executives, including Sarah Jessica Parker, were stuck in a Century City parking garage for hours? It was Hollywood’s post-New Year’s bash and we never thought it would end. But it is most definitely over. At least for the moment. And, even Hollywood isn’t staying out late on a Tuesday night. Not in a streaming economy under Wall Street’s skeptical microscope.
So, we have a new HFPA holding on to the slim hope the Globes can redeem themselves one last time. An organization that has brought on 103 new voters (not members, but voters) from around the world to decide the award show’s nominees and winners. This has been something of a head-scratcher for studios and networks used to individually courting and the 80 or so HFPA “members” who were famously known for their loose lips and predictable cinematic tendencies. And if there was somehow an upset on Globe night, it was usually a shocking upset to the members too. A majority of the new voters, on the other hand, are not based in Los Angeles. They are not coming to screenings or events. They purposefully are out of the industry bubble. In fact, many consultants have no personal relationship with them whatsoever. And, they now account for over 50% of the vote. So, that makes predicting the winners, often easier than the Oscars, a much more difficult chore.
That being said, we’re going to assume some general HFPA rules still apply. First and foremost, the organization does not want to be embarrassed. They may nominate someone out of the blue, but their goal is to still pick the Oscar winner for Best Picture through either their Drama or Comedy/Musical categories. They don’t want to completely miss the mark and anoint a winner who has no shot at the Academy Awards. Second, they often think they are ahead of the curve when it comes to television winners. And they may select a “new” show (or performance from said program) over a more critically acclaimed series to ensure this occurs. And, lastly, while they do love to nominate big, old-fashioned stars, they rarely select them over the performances their more esteemed peers have already honored. Again, just remember: the HFPA does not like to be wrong.
And that should be good news for films such as “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Elvis” and “TAR.” I mean, it will be if the 103 new members aren’t looking to cause chaos. And if they are, hey, at least that would be entertaining, right?
Keeping all that in mind, here are some as educated as you can get Golden Globe Awards predictions with 103 new voters.
BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
ELVIS (Warner Bros)
THE FABELMANS (Universal Pictures)
TÁR (Focus Features)
TOP GUN: MAVERICK (Paramount Pictures)
Who Will Win: “Elvis”
Who Should Win: “TAR”
Upset: “Top Guin: Maverick”
Lowdown: Tom Cruise‘s monster hit could easily surprise but this is the organization that loves biopics and, more importantly, the film they think has the best shot at winning the Oscar. In this case, they’ll think it’s probably “Elvis.” We say “Fablemans” and “Top Gun” have a better shot.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
CATE BLANCHETT   TÁR
OLIVIA COLMAN   EMPIRE OF LIGHT
VIOLA DAVIS   THE WOMAN KING
ANA DE ARMAS   BLONDE
MICHELLE WILLIAMS   THE FABELMANS
Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Who Should Win: Cate Blanchett or Olivia Colman
Upset: Olivia Colman, Ana De Armas
Lowdown: I mean, Blanchett and Colman won’t be there due to work commitments. Will that affect how members vote? We’re gonna find out!
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
AUSTIN BUTLER   ELVIS
BRENDAN FRASER   THE WHALE
HUGH JACKMAN   THE SON
BILL NIGHY   LIVING
JEREMY POPE   THE INSPECTION
Who Will Win: Austin Butler
Who Should Win: Bill Nighy
Upset: Bill Nighy, Brendan Fraser
Lowdown: It would be quite surprising for Butler to lose this.
BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
BABYLON (Paramount Pictures)
THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN (Searchlight Pictures)
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE (A24)
GLASS ONION: A KNIVES OUT MYSTERY (Netflix)
TRIANGLE OF SADNESS (Neon)
Who Will Win: “Everything Everywhere All At Once”
Who Should Win: “Everything,” “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Upset: “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Lowdown: This is very close. The HFPA is still generally an older group that, in theory, favors “Banshees.” But, the new members are decidedly not from the U.K./Irish diaspora and may be more inclined to go with “Everything” and its almost all-Asian cast. A real flip ’em.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
LESLEY MANVILLE   MRS. HARRIS GOES TO PARIS
MARGOT ROBBIE   BABYLON
ANYA TAYLOR-JOY   THE MENU
EMMA THOMPSON   GOOD LUCK TO YOU, LEO GRANDE
MICHELLE YEOH   EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
Who Will Win: Michelle Yeoh
Who Should Win: Michelle Yeoh
Upset: Emma Thompson
Lowdown: Like Austin Butler, one of the biggest locks of the night.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
DIEGO CALVA BABYLON
DANIEL CRAIG GLASS ONION: A KNIVES OUT MYSTERY
ADAM DRIVER WHITE NOISE
COLIN FARRELL THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
RALPH FIENNES THE MENU
Who Will Win: Colin Farrell
Who Should Win: Colin Farrell
Upset: None
Lowdown: Like Austin Butler and Michelle Yeoh, one of the biggest locks of the night.
BEST MOTION PICTURE – ANIMATED
GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO (Netflix)
INU-OH (GKIDS)
MARCEL THE SHELL WITH SHOES ON (A24)
PUSS IN BOOTS: THE LAST WISH (Universal Pictures)
TURNING RED (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
Who Will Win: “Guillermo del Toro’s PInocchio”
Who Should Win: “Turning Red”
Upset: None
Lowdown: Guillermo ain’t losing this.
BEST MOTION PICTURE – NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE (FORMERLY FOREIGN LANGUAGE)
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT (GERMANY) (Netflix)
ARGENTINA, 1985 (ARGENTINA) (Amazon Prime Video)
CLOSE (BELGIUM / FRANCE / NETHERLANDS) (A24)
DECISION TO LEAVE (SOUTH KOREA) (MUBI)
RRR (INDIA) (Variance Films)
Who Will Win: “RRR”
Who Should Win: “Close”
Upset: “Close,” “All Quiet on the Western Front”
Lowdown: Honestly, the only film that doesn’t have a chance here is “Argentina, 1985.”
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
ANGELA BASSETT BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER
KERRY CONDON THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
JAMIE LEE CURTIS EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
DOLLY DE LEON TRIANGLE OF SADNESS
CAREY MULLIGAN SHE SAID
Who Will Win: Dolly De Leon
Who Should Win: Kerry Condon
Upset: Angela Bassett, Jamie Lee Curtis
Lowdown: De Leon has been pushing the pedal to the medal. Globes might give her a nice PR boost.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
BRENDAN GLEESON   THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
BARRY KEOGHAN   THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
BRAD PITT   BABYLON
KE HUY QUAN   EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
EDDIE REDMAYNE   THE GOOD NURSE
Who Will Win: Ke Huy Quan
Who Should Win: Ke Huy Quan
Upset: Brendan Gleeson
Lowdown: Like Austin Butler, Michelle Yeoh, and Colin Farrell, Ke Huy Quan is one of the biggest locks of the night.
BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE
JAMES CAMERON AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER
DANIEL KWAN, DANIEL SCHEINERT EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
BAZ LUHRMANN ELVIS
MARTIN MCDONAGH THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
STEVEN SPIELBERG THE FABELMANS
Who Will Win: Baz Luhrmann
Who Should Win: The Daniels
Upset: The Daniels, Steven Spielberg
Lowdown: Somehow, “Elvis” went from slightly underrated to massively overrated, but Luhrmann is a campaign veteran. You know he found a way to speak to all those new voters somehow.
BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE
TODD FIELD TÁR
DANIEL KWAN, DANIEL SCHEINERT EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
MARTIN MCDONAGH THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
SARAH POLLEY WOMEN TALKING
STEVEN SPIELBERG, TONY KUSHNER THE FABELMANS
Who Will Win: Martin McDonagh
Who Should Win: Martin McDonagh
Upset: Todd Field, Sarah Polley
Lowdown: Sarah Polley would be an inspired choice, but we see the “Banshees” architect getting rewarded here.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – MOTION PICTURE
CARTER BURWELL   THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
ALEXANDRE DESPLAT   GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO
HILDUR GUÐNADÓTTIR   WOMEN TALKING
JUSTIN HURWITZ   BABYLON
JOHN WILLIAMS   THE FABELMANS
Who Will Win: John Williams
Who Should Win: John Williams
Upset: Alexandre Desplat
Lowdown: So, John Williams has won four globes over his career. Alexandre Desplat has won two. This is def a flip ’em.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE
“CAROLINA” — WHERE THE CRAWDADS SING
Music by: Taylor Swift
Lyrics by: Taylor Swift
“CIAO PAPA” — GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO
Music by: Alexandre Desplat
Lyrics by: Roeban Katz, Guillermo del Toro
“HOLD MY HAND” — TOP GUN: MAVERICK
Music by: Lady Gaga, BloodPop, Benjamin Rice
Lyrics by: Lady Gaga, BloodPop
“LIFT ME UP” — BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER
Music by: Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson
Lyrics by: Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson
“NAATU NAATU” — RRR
Music by: M.M. Keeravani
Lyrics by: Kala Bhairava, Rahul Sipligunj
Who Will Win: “Hold My Hand”
Who Should Win: “Lift Me Up”
Upset: “Lift Me Up,” “Naatu Naatu”
Lowdown: If we know anything about the HFPA, even with 103 new members they love themselves some Lady Gaga.
BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
BETTER CALL SAUL   AMC+/AMC
THE CROWN   NETFLIX
HOUSE OF THE DRAGON   HBO MAX
OZARK   NETFLIX
SEVERANCE   APPLE TV+
Who Will Win: Severance
Who Should Win: Severance, Better Call Saul
Upset: Ozark
Lowdown: Worth noting “Game of Thrones” never won this category during its eight-season run (it was nominated just four times). That’s bad news for “House of the Dragon.” Will they select “The Crown” after a very middling season? We doubt it. We’re going with “Severance,” but an “Ozark” curveball is possible.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
EMMA D’ARCY   HOUSE OF THE DRAGON
LAURA LINNEY   OZARK
IMELDA STAUNTON   THE CROWN
HILARY SWANK   ALASKA DAILY
ZENDAYA   EUPHORIA
Who Will Win: Zendaya
Who Should Win: Zendaya
Upset: Laura Linney, Imelda Stauton
Lowdown: Zendaya will finally win a Golden Globe…if that’s even a thing her fans care about.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
JEFF BRIDGES   THE OLD MAN
KEVIN COSTNER   YELLOWSTONE
DIEGO LUNA   ANDOR
BOB ODENKIRK   BETTER CALL SAUL
ADAM SCOTT   SEVERANCE
Who Will Win: Adam Scott
Who Should Win: Diego Luna
Upset: Bob Odenkirk, Jeff Bridges, Kevin Costner
Lowdown: In theory, we’d think Diego Luna could take this but we’ve not convinced enough members even watched “Andor” (ranked no. 2 series of 2022 via Metacritic). Adam Scott seems like the safe pick, but this is also Bob Odenkirk’s fifth nomination without a win. Do enough members know that to care?
BEST TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
ABBOTT ELEMENTARY ABC
THE BEAR FX
HACKS HBO MAX
ONLY MURDERS IN THE BUILDING HULU
WEDNESDAY NETFLIX
Who Will Win: “Wednesday”
Who Should Win: “Abbott Elementary,” “The Bear”
Upset: “Abbott Elementary,” “Hacks”
Lowdown: The last time a series won this category more than once was in 2011 when “Glee” repeated its 2010 win. Over the past decade, the members have been all over the place going network or streamer, broad or serious with no genuine trends (very few of them actually cover television). Our guess is they want to get on the “Wednesday” bandwagon and give it the crown.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
QUINTA BRUNSON   ABBOTT ELEMENTARY
KALEY CUOCO   THE FLIGHT ATTENDANT
SELENA GOMEZ   ONLY MURDERS IN THE BUILDING
JENNA ORTEGA   WEDNESDAY
JEAN SMART   HACKS
Who Will Win: Jean Smart
Who Should Win: Quinta Brunson
Upset: Jenna Ortega
Lowdown: Yes, the HFPA traditionally has loved the first-time nominee who is a young ingenue, but it also likes repeat winners in this category. We think last year’s champion, Jean Smart, goes back to back for “Hacks.”
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
DONALD GLOVER   ATLANTA
BILL HADER   BARRY
STEVE MARTIN   ONLY MURDERS IN THE BUILDING
MARTIN SHORT   ONLY MURDERS IN THE BUILDING
JEREMY ALLEN WHITE   THE BEAR
Who Will Win: Jeremy Allen White
Who Should Win: Bill Hader
Upset: Bill Hader
Lowdown: We think the semi-fresh face of Jeremy Allen White pulls it out.
BEST TELEVISION LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
BLACK BIRD   APPLE TV+
DAHMER – MONSTER: THE JEFFREY DAHMER STORY   NETFLIX
THE DROPOUT   HULU
PAM & TOMMY   HULU
THE WHITE LOTUS   HBO MAX
Who Will Win: The White Lotus
Who Should Win: The Dropout
Upset: The Dropout
Lowdown: I mean, it would be shocking if The White Lotus didn’t win this.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES, OR A MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
JESSICA CHASTAIN   GEORGE & TAMMY
JULIA GARNER  INVENTING ANNA
LILY JAMES   PAM & TOMMY
JULIA ROBERTS   GASLIT
AMANDA SEYFRIED   THE DROPOUT
Who Will Win: Amanda Seyfried
Who Should Win: Amanda Seyfried
Upset: Jessica Chastain
Lowdown: If the recent Oscar winner and “George & Tammy” star takes this, its recency bias and nothing more. But can you have recency bias if not enough members have even watched your program yet?
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES, OR A MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
TARON EGERTON   BLACK BIRD
COLIN FIRTH   THE STAIRCASE
ANDREW GARFIELD   UNDER THE BANNER OF HEAVEN
EVAN PETERS   DAHMER – MONSTER: THE JEFFREY DAHMER STORY
SEBASTIAN STAN   PAM & TOMMY
Who Will Win: Evan Peters
Who Should Win: Sebastian Stan
Upset: any of the rest
Lowdown: This is a perplexing category if and only if Evan Peters doesn’t win.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
JENNIFER COOLIDGE   THE WHITE LOTUS
CLAIRE DANES   FLEISHMAN IS IN TROUBLE
DAISY EDGAR-JONES   UNDER THE BANNER OF HEAVEN
NIECY NASH   DAHMER – MONSTER: THE JEFFREY DAHMER STORY
AUBREY PLAZA   THE WHITE LOTUS
Who Will Win: Jennifer Coolidge
Who Should Win: Claire Danes, Aubrey Plaza
Upset: Claire Danes, Aubrey Plaza
Lowdown: In theory, Jennifer Coolidge will easily take this, but will she split votes with her “White Lotus” co-star?
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
F. MURRAY ABRAHAM   THE WHITE LOTUS
DOMHNALL GLEESON   THE PATIENT
PAUL WALTER HAUSER   BLACK BIRD
RICHARD JENKINS   DAHMER – MONSTER: THE JEFFREY DAHMER STORY
SETH ROGEN   PAM & TOMMY
Who Will Win: Pick ’em
Who Should Win: No clue
Upset: Richard Jenkins
Lowdown: I mean, this category is…beyond tough. Have enough members watched “Black Bird” or “The Patient?” And of all the male supporting performances in “White Lotus,” F. Murray Abraham is who you nominated? Can they just cut this award from the show?
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MUSICAL-COMEDY OR DRAMA TELEVISION SERIES
ELIZABETH DEBICKI   THE CROWN
HANNAH EINBINDER   HACKS
JULIA GARNER   OZARK
JANELLE JAMES   ABBOTT ELEMENTARY
SHERYL LEE RALPH   ABBOTT ELEMENTARY
Who Will Win: Elizabeth Debicki
Who Should Win: Sheryl Lee Ralph
Upset: Julia Garner
Lowdown: This category hasn’t gone with a comedic performance since “Glee’s” Jane Lynch in 2011. The HFPA love “The Crown” and Elizabeth Debicki absolutely gave the best performance of the most recent season as a very tall Princess Diana. If not Debicki, look for Julia Garner to take her first Globe on her third try.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MUSICAL-COMEDY OR DRAMA TELEVISION SERIES
JOHN LITHGOW   THE OLD MAN
JONATHAN PRYCE   THE CROWN
JOHN TURTURRO   SEVERANCE
TYLER JAMES WILLIAMS   ABBOTT ELEMENTARY
HENRY WINKLER   BARRY
Who Will Win: Henry Winkler
Who Should Win: Henry Winkler
Upset: John Lithgow
Lowdown: I mean, a comedic performance hasn’t won this category since “Entourage’s” Jeremy Piven in 2008. This is Henry Winkler’s third nomination, but we think he might finally pull through. If not? Then likely John Lithgow or John Turturro.
The 80th Golden Globes will air at 5 PM PT/8 PM ET on NBC.