The 96th Academy Awards are almost here and another long, strange awards season is at an end. And while there was no public scandal for The Academy to deal with this time around (granted, they need to make it through the telecast alive), the 2020s continue to deliver one Oscars curveball after another. This time around it was the collective WGA and SAG strikes, which put directors first and foremost at the center of most movie campaigns for the first few months of the season. The end of the SAG strike in November saw a deluge of screenings and actors (at least those available) attempting to make up ground by all means possible. Through it all there was pretty much one constant: this was Christopher Nolan and “Oppenheimer’s” year.
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When the Oscars ceremony ends on Sunday night, the Universal Pictures release will have at least seven Academy Award wins to celebrate including Best Picture. And “Oppenheimer” will become the third movie in a row to be released in theaters before September 1 and take the industry’s biggest prize. Cough, trend alert, anyone?
The almost billion-dollar grossing drama is such a lock in numerous categories that there is really only one category with any real drama left; Best Actress. We’ll get to that showdown in a minute, but, in theory, there will be a lot to celebrate. Da’Vine Joy Randolph topping off one of the greatest awards season runs ever. Robert Downey, Jr. securing a long-deserved Oscar 31 years after his first nomination. Wes Anderson potentially earning his first Oscar thanks to a Netflix-greenlit short film. Screenwriter Cord Jefferson taking an Oscar for his little Amazon MGM Studios movie that could. And Billie Eilish winning her second Academy Award statue at the ripe old age of 22. And if ABC is lucky, all the “Barbie” nominations and Ryan Gosling’s live “I’m Just Ken” performance will result in a nice uptick in ratings (assuming viewers realize the show is airing an hour earlier this year). Not bad, eh?
Oh, and before we dive into some final predictions, a reminder of how volatile those pesky shorts categories are. Casual inquiries among Academy members make it sound like fewer have participated than in previous years. That means voters who have a lot of time on their hands and are not working (i.e., those retired from the biz) are the ones casting ballots. Sometimes the cream of the crop still rises to the top in these periods and, sadly, sometimes they don’t. It also means, unlike in recent years, it’s hard to find one “lock” in any of the three short categories. Just a word of warning before you fill out your party Oscar pool.
Keeping all that in mind…some predictions…
Performance by an actor in a leading role
Bradley Cooper in “Maestro”
Colman Domingo in “Rustin”
Paul Giamatti in “The Holdovers”
Cillian Murphy in “Oppenheimer”
Jeffrey Wright in “American Fiction”
Who will win: Cillian MurphyWho should win: Andrew Scott, er, ohUpset: Paul GiamattiLowdown: There is an infinitesimal chance that “The Holdovers” star will pull off an upset, but after Murphy won both the BAFTA and the SAG Award that would be a genuine shock to everyone in the theater and watching from home.
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Sterling K. Brown in “American Fiction”
Robert De Niro in “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Robert Downey Jr. in “Oppenheimer”
Ryan Gosling in “Barbie”
Mark Ruffalo in “Poor Things”
Who will win: Robert Downey, Jr.Who should win: Robert Downey, Jr.Upset: Not happeningLowdown: This is RDJ’s moment and he genuinely deserves it for a truly stellar performance. No “career” win here.
Performance by an actress in a leading role
Annette Bening in “Nyad”
Lily Gladstone in “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Sandra Hüller in “Anatomy of a Fall”
Carey Mulligan in “Maestro”
Emma Stone in “Poor Things”
Who will win: Emma StoneWho should win: Emma StoneUpset: Lily Gladstone or Sandra HüllerLowdown: This is the biggie. The category where there is still genuine drama over who will win. Emma Stone took the BAFTA Award after that organization didn’t even include Lily Gladstone on its shortlist (a shortlist partially determined by a committee, which looked even worse). Gladstone, as expected, then won the SAG Award. That union had rewarded “Killers of the Flower Moon” with an Ensemble nomination. “Poor Things” did not make that cut but landed, alongside “Oppenheimer” and “Anatomy of a Fall” every single nomination you need to win Best Picture. “Killers,” not so much. Gladstone has been everywhere on the awards circuit (perhaps too much) and has been a darling of the media since Cannes. In some ways, it feels very much like Michelle Yeoh vs. Cate Blanchett’s scenario that played out last year, but…is it? “Everything Everywhere All At Once” was a beloved movie that saw even Jamie Lee Curtis win an Oscar for, arguably, the least deserved nomination in her category. “Killers” will be lucky to win any category outside of Best Actress. Unlike “Tar,” the Academy has shown more love for “Poor Things.” Will AMPAS members really send a movie with 11 nominations home without one win? The last time that happened was “The Color Purple” in 1986. 10 nominations and no win? That’s a bit more common. It happened as recently as 2014 with “American Hustle.” Making things even more intriguing is the presence of Hüller who won the European Actress Award and a Cesar Award for “Anatomy.” If she siphons off votes is she hurting Gladstone or Stone’s chances? And, if you really want to play with track record, in 2019 Yorgos Lantimos directed Olivia Colman to an “upset” win over Glenn Close in this same category. That year, every Oscar voter this pundit talked to said they were voting for Colman. We talked to most of those voters again and this time around? Stone (or Hüller). Will history repeat itself? Or will the Academy select Gladstone as the first Native American to win Lead Actress? If we’re wrong, we’re wrong, but it’s a close one.
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Emily Blunt in “Oppenheimer”
Danielle Brooks in “The Color Purple”
America Ferrera in “Barbie”
Jodie Foster in “Nyad”
Da’Vine Joy Randolph in “The Holdovers”
Who will win: Da’Vine Joy RandolphWho should win: Da’Vine Joy RandolphUpset: Not happeningLowdown: Randolph will end her remarkable awards season run having won almost every potential critic and guild honor you can. That’s history right there.
Best animated feature film of the year
“The Boy and the Heron” Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki
“Elemental” Peter Sohn and Denise Ream
“Nimona” Nick Bruno, Troy Quane, Karen Ryan and Julie Zackary
“Robot Dreams” Pablo Berger, Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé and Sandra Tapia Díaz
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Amy Pascal
Who will win: “The Boy and the Heron”Who should win: “Robot Dreams”Upset: “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”Lowdown: Despite protests from producer Phil Lord, this is a case of a critically acclaimed $690 million-grossing worldwide blockbuster versus a critically acclaimed $167 million global grossing hit. “Across” dominated the Annie Awards and took the equivalent PGA Award. Directed by the legendary and out-of-retirement Hayao Miyazaki, “Heron” took the BAFTA Award and numerous major critics honors. Lots of other interesting tidbits at play. Miyazaki won this award in 2003 for “Spirit Away,” but it lost it in 2006 and 2014 for “Howl’s Moving Castle” and “The Wind Rises,” respectively. Moreover, over its relatively short existence, the only sequel to win another Animated Feature Oscar is the “Toy Story” sequels (every chapter has won). Is “Spider-Verse” in that category? Or will master Miyazaki take it?
Achievement in cinematography
“El Conde” Edward Lachman
“Killers of the Flower Moon” Rodrigo Prieto
“Maestro” Matthew Libatique
“Oppenheimer” Hoyte van Hoytema
“Poor Things” Robbie Ryan
Who will win: Hoyte van HoytemaWho should win: Robbie RyanUpset: Rodrigo Prieto, Robbie RyanLowdown: There is a slim chance Hoytema doesn’t take this, but we’d be genuinely shocked. Especially considering how the ASC Award winner collaborated with Nolan to fashion such a cinematic endeavor about scientists arguing about how to build an atomic bomb and congressional hearings. He should be rewarded as such.
Achievement in costume design
“Barbie” Jacqueline Durran
“Killers of the Flower Moon” Jacqueline West
“Napoleon” Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
“Oppenheimer” Ellen Mirojnick
“Poor Things” Holly Waddington
Who will win: Jacqueline DuranWho should win: Holly WaddingtonUpset: Holly WaddingtonLowdown: This is a dicey category, but our gut tells us the members go with “Barbie” here. Personally, wouldn’t be upset if the more deserving couture frocks from “Poor Things” took it though.
Achievement in directing
“Anatomy of a Fall” Justine Triet
“Killers of the Flower Moon” Martin Scorsese
“Oppenheimer” Christopher Nolan
“Poor Things” Yorgos Lanthimos
“The Zone of Interest” Jonathan Glazer
Who will win: Christopher NolanWho should win: Jonathan GlazerUpset: Not happening.Lowdown: This will be another long-awaited win in a night full of long-awaited wins for Nolan.
Best documentary feature film
“Bobi Wine: The People’s President” Moses Bwayo, Christopher Sharp and John Battsek
“The Eternal Memory” Nominees to be determined
“Four Daughters” Kaouther Ben Hania and Nadim Cheikhrouha
“To Kill a Tiger” Nisha Pahuja, Cornelia Principe and David Oppenheim
“20 Days in Mariupol” Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath
Who will win: “20 Days in Mariupol”Who should win: “20 Days in Mariupol” or “The Eternal Memory”Upset: “The Eternal Memory” or “Four Daughters”Lowdown: We can’t remember the last time so many members told us they abstained in this category. And, frankly, if you haven’t watched the films, that’s the right choice. It’s likely going to come down to a race between Mstyslav Chernov’s “20 Days in Mariupol” or Maite Alberdi’s “The Eternal Memory.” The former took the BAFTA but lost at the PGA Awards and the Cinema Eye Honors. And, yet, both times it lost to films not nominated for the Oscar. “The Eternal Memory” beat “20 Days” for the World Cinema Documentary Grand Jury prize at the 2023 Sundance Film Festival, but has been the underdog lurking in the wings. It perhaps has the most “heart” of all the nominees and has been generating substantial buzz. Another potential upset is Kaouther Ben Hania’s “Four Daughters” but that would be a massive surprise.
Best documentary short film
“The ABCs of Book Banning” Sheila Nevins and Trish Adlesic
“The Barber of Little Rock” John Hoffman and Christine Turner
“Island in Between” S. Leo Chiang and Jean Tsien
“The Last Repair Shop” Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
“Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó” Sean Wang and Sam Davis
Who will win: “The Last Repair Shop”Who should win: “The ABCs of Book Banning”Upset: “The ABCs of Book Banning”Lowdown: This is a tough one. The subject matter of “ABCs” and the Florida students it chronicles are captivating, but it’s hardly cinematic, even for a doc. That has to give you pause when such a relatively small number of voters are participating in this category. “The Last Repair Shop” is utterly cinematic (it’s beautifully shot), a local subject matter (Los Angeles), and genuinely moving. It’s a long one though, but we think it’s good enough to overcome it. A true flip ’em though.
Achievement in film editing
“Anatomy of a Fall” Laurent Sénéchal
“The Holdovers” Kevin Tent
“Killers of the Flower Moon” Thelma Schoonmaker
“Oppenheimer” Jennifer Lame
“Poor Things” Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Who will win: Jennifer LameWho should win: Jennifer LameUpset: Not happening.Lowdown: The “Oppenheimer” editor just took the ACE Eddie Award and she’s taking this too. She’ll be the second Nolan collaborator to take this category after Lee Smith won it for “Dunkirk” in 2018.
Best international feature film of the year
“Io Capitano” Italy
“Perfect Days” Japan
“Society of the Snow” Spain
“The Teachers’ Lounge” Germany
“The Zone of Interest” United Kingdom
Who will win: “The Zone of Interest”Who should win: “The Zone of Interest”Upset: “Society of the Snow”Lowdown: This is a very intriguing race. J.A. Bayona’s “Society” is a big hit in the U.S. and worldwide for Netflix. Millions of people have watched it and, in theory, that could push it across a finish line in a category where voters aren’t required to watch all the nominees. That being said, a movie nominated for both Best Picture and International Film has never lost the latter honor. Hence, this pundit and The Playlist’s no. 1 film of 2023 should take the prize.
Achievement in makeup and hairstyling
“Golda” Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue
“Maestro” Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell
“Oppenheimer” Luisa Abel
“Poor Things” Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston
“Society of the Snow” Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé
Who will win: Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-BellWho should win: Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston or Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí, and Montse RibéUpset: Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston Lowdown: Netflix has wanted this category for “Maestro” badly and shifted almost their entire post-nomination campaign to secure it. Hiro also previously won this honor for “Bombshell” just four years ago.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
“American Fiction” Laura Karpman
“Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” John Williams
“Killers of the Flower Moon” Robbie Robertson
“Oppenheimer” Ludwig Göransson
“Poor Things” Jerskin Fendrix
Who will win: Ludwig GöranssonWho should win: Ludwig GöranssonUpset: Not happening.Lowdown: He’s already won a Grammy for the equivalent category and every other possible precursor, he’s not losing here.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
“The Fire Inside” from “Flamin’ Hot”Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
“I’m Just Ken” from “Barbie”Music and Lyric by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
“It Never Went Away” from “American Symphony”Music and Lyric by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson
“Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” from “Killers of the Flower Moon”Music and Lyric by Scott George
“What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie”Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
Who will win: “What Was I Made For?”Who should win: “What Was I Made For?”Upset: “I’m Just Ken”Lowdown: In theory, Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt‘s “I’m Just Ken” could take this, but can you find a song that won the Grammy for Song of the Year and didn’t take this category? Let alone a song that beat out the competition it devoured for Song of the Year this year? If Billie Eilish and Finneas lose it would be a historic, jaw-dropping upset. Unlike some other categories this year, however, it is “possible.”
Achievement in production design
“Barbie” Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
“Killers of the Flower Moon” Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
“Napoleon” Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Elli Griff
“Oppenheimer” Production Design: Ruth De Jong; Set Decoration: Claire Kaufman
“Poor Things” Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek
Who will win: James Price and Shona Heath; and Zsuzsa MihaleWho should win: James Price and Shona Heath; and Zsuzsa MihaleUpset: Sarah Greenwood and Katie SpencerLowdown: This is the one category we are pretty convinced where “Poor Thing’s” aesthetic will triumph over “Barbie’s.” Price and Heath have already taken the CDG Award and the BAFTA Award for this category. That being said, the “Barbie” team could come out on top.
Best animated short film
“Letter to a Pig” Tal Kantor and Amit R. Gicelter
“Ninety-Five Senses” Jerusha Hess and Jared Hess
“Our Uniform” Yegane Moghaddam
“Pachyderme” Stéphanie Clément and Marc Rius
“WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko” Dave Mullins and Brad Booker
Who will win: “Letter to a Pig”Who should win: “Letter to a Pig”Upset: “Pachyderme” or “WAR IS OVER!”Lowdown: “Letter to a Pig” is a masterpiece, and I don’t say that lightly. That being said, it might be too artistic for some of these voters. “WAR IS OVER!” is fine, but might play to the older voters who have enough time on their hands to participate in short-category voting (it doesn’t hurt that John Lennon and Yoko Ono’s “Happy Xmas (War is Over)” plays at the end of it). “Pachyderme” also has its fans, but we think “Pig” will pull it out.
Best live-action short film
“The After” Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham
“Invincible” Vincent René-Lortie and Samuel Caron
“Knight of Fortune” Lasse Lyskjær Noer and Christian Norlyk
“Red, White and Blue” Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane
“The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar” Wes Anderson and Steven Rales
Who will win: “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar”Who should win: “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar”Upset: “Knight of Fortune”Lowdown: Here’s the thing. Wes Anderson‘s “Henry Sugar” is far and away the best piece of cinema in this category. There is no argument anyone rational could make that the other four nominees come close to it. That being said, will the quirky voters who participate in this category ding Anderson for being a “feature” filmmaker slumming in the shorts world? That is a genuine concern. If it is, “Knight of Fortune’s” subject matter probably benefits it the most (an old man comes to terms with the death of his wife in a morgue). Our money is still on Anderson to win his first Oscar though.
Achievement in sound
“The Creator” Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
“Maestro” Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
“Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
“Oppenheimer” Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O’Connell
“The Zone of Interest” Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn
Who will win: Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O’ConnellWho should win: Tarn Willers and Johnnie BurnUpset: Tarn Willers and Johnnie BurnLowdown: This is one of the more under-the-radar races where there is a slim, slim, slim chance of an upset. “Oppenheimer” has won all the sound awards precursors except for one, the BAFTA. And that went to the very deserved “The Zone of Interest,” a movie whose sound design is a key part of its creative achievement. Will AMPAS voters recognize that? Or just check “Oppenheimer” on their ballots? Ponder.
Achievement in visual effects
“The Creator” Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould
“Godzilla Minus One” Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams and Theo Bialek
“Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould
“Napoleon” Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould
Who will win: Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji NojimaWho should win: Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil CorbouldUpset: Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil CorbouldLowdown: Like Sound, this is a very intriguing race. The “Godzilla Minus One” team were the darlings of the Oscar Luncheon and the movie counts big fans such as Steven Spielberg. But, it’s very rare that a film as broad as “Godzilla” wins this statute (at least in the 21st Century). You could argue it hasn’t happened since “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” in 2007 and that blockbuster was going up against duds “Poseidon” and “Superman Returns.” But “Minus One” also feels a wee bit like the hype around “RRR” last year and both movies did incredibly well at the U.S. box office with the latter taking Original Song. Moreover, despite earning $104 million worldwide, we’re not sure Gareth Edwards’s near-future thriller has the same respect as previous “artistic” winners in this category such as “Ex Machina,” “Blade Runner 2049,” or “Dune.” Then again, is it comparable to “First Man” or “Tenet”? Not so easy a choice, is it?
Adapted screenplay
“American Fiction” Written for the screen by Cord Jefferson
“Barbie” Written by Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach
“Oppenheimer” Written for the screen by Christopher Nolan
“Poor Things” Screenplay by Tony McNamara
“The Zone of Interest” Written by Jonathan Glazer
Who will win: Cord JeffersonWho should win: Jonathan GlazerUpset: Christopher NolanLowdown: If you are hoping this is where Greta Gerwig is rewarded for “Barbie,” we hate to break the news to you, but that’s likely not happening. Cord Jefferson took the BAFTA Award for this same category winning over “local” British competition as well as an Independent Spirit Award for overall Screenplay. The industry loves “American Fiction.” It’s one reason it earned a Best Picture nomination despite being the least “cinematic” of all the nominees. The screenplay (and performances) are so smart, that all other criticisms are forgiven. Sure, Nolan may win for eventual Best Picture winner “Oppenheimer” (a Best Picture win and a Screenplay win usually go together), but this should be where “Fiction” gets its moment in the spotlight.
Original screenplay
“Anatomy of a Fall” Screenplay – Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
“The Holdovers” Written by David Hemingson
“Maestro” Written by Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer
“May December” Screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik
“Past Lives” Written by Celine Song
Who will win: Justine Triet and Arthur HarariWho should win: Samy Burch and Alex MechanikUpset: David HemingsonLowdown: First and foremost, the Academy loves “Anatomy of a Fall.” As noted previously, it’s the only movie outside of “Oppenheimer” and “Poor Things” that earned a nomination for every category you theoretically “need” to win Best Picture (Director, Screenplay, Acting, Editing). There is only one category you can really reward it and that’s here. If the Writer’s Branch hadn’t stupidly moved “Barbie” to Adapted Screenplay (don’t get us started) it might have been a different story, but following their BAFTA win we’re inclined to suggest Triet and Harari have this somewhat somewhat locked up.
Best motion picture of the year
“American Fiction” Ben LeClair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson and Jermaine Johnson, Producers
“Anatomy of a Fall” Marie-Ange Luciani and David Thion, Producers
“Barbie” David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley and Robbie Brenner, Producers
“The Holdovers” Mark Johnson, Producer
“Killers of the Flower Moon” Dan Friedkin, Bradley Thomas, Martin Scorsese and Daniel Lupi, Producers
“Maestro” Bradley Cooper, Steven Spielberg, Fred Berner, Amy Durning and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers
“Oppenheimer” Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan, Producers
“Past Lives” David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon and Pamela Koffler, Producers
“Poor Things” Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone, Producers
“The Zone of Interest” James Wilson, Producer
Who will win: “Oppenheimer”Who should win: “The Zone of Interest” or “Poor Things”Upset: Not happening.Lowdown: Book it.
The 96th Academy Awards will be telecast earlier than normal this year at 4 PM PT / 7 PM ET live on ABC.