Viewership in the Academy Awards has declined in recent years for many reasons, but among them is the lack of tension. After a long award season of critics’ prizes, industry events, and televised awards shows, you generally see the same sort of speeches from the same group of winners over and over again. There’s not as much incitement to watch if you feel like you already know what the results are going in.

Sadly for this year’s Oscar producers, it doesn’t look like the season is shaking out any differently in the main acting categories. Best Actor appears to be a tight battle between Brendan Fraser, Austin Butler, and Colin Farrell; Best Actress is a wild race between Michelle Williams, Michelle Yeoh, Margot Robbie, Cate Blanchett, and Danielle Deadwyler. While it appears that Ke Huy Quan is going to be walking away with the Best Supporting Actor trophy, there’s a chance that Brendan Fraser, Ben Whishaw, Paul Dano, or Judd Hirsch could end up surprising.
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Even if we don’t quite know who is winning yet, we have a pretty good idea of the groups that they’ll be from the precursors. In all likelihood, a consensus will form in the next few months as the awards stack up. However, the Best Supporting Actress is truly a wild one; not only is there not really a projected winner, but there’s not even a set group that feels anywhere close to being locked for nominations. It’s a race that you’ll want to track closely this season to see what surprises could be in store.

Contenders With Multiple Performances

It’s not rare that a film receives two acting nominations in the same category if it is popular with the Academy. While sometimes this can lead to a split in voting on the winner (such was the case with Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz in The Favourite), a second nominee can sometimes support the eventual winner (think of Woody Harrelson getting in alongside his Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri co-star Sam Rockwell). However, this year we have a few divisive movies where it’s unclear how they will perform overall.

Women Talking is certainly a powerful, moving seminar on gender dynamics and redemption, and while critics have found it to be immensely effective, it’s likely that it will turn off some awards voters who view it as “dull.” This may make it hard for co-stars Jessie Buckley and Claire Foy to get in, as they are both given somewhat equal amounts of screentime. Similarly, The Whale looks like it will be more divisive than early reviews indicated; Hong Chau’s performance was cited early on, but those who connected with the film more emotionally may be more attracted to voting for Sadie Sink.

We also have Everything Everywhere All At Once, which some predictors see as a legitimate threat to win Best Picture over the current frontrunner The Fabelmans. Stephanie Hsu clearly has the more emotional supporting performance, but Jamie Lee Curtis is an industry legend who has somehow never been nominated. Would voters give her the edge as a tribute to her career?

Rising Best Picture Contenders

Image via Universal Pictures

While Best Supporting Actress winners don’t necessarily have to be from Best Picture nominees, it certainly doesn’t hurt their chances if their film is well-liked by the Academy and is already receiving other nominations. Considering that The Banshees of Inisherin and Tar are top-tier Best Picture contenders, Kerry Condon and Nina Hos are likely in the mix, even though they are doing more subtle work and aren’t quite as well known.

It’s also entirely unclear where some films’ Best Picture chances stand, which could affect the number of nominations they receive. She Said was marked as a potential contender for multiple prizes (including Carey Mulligan for Best Supporting Actress), but the disappointing box office returns and respectful, yet unenthusiastic reviews make its chances unclear. The Woman King has the potential to over exceed in nominations due to the passionate love for the film, so maybe Lashana Lynch has a shot. Oscar voters could also love Babylon in all of its wild glory; if voters are truly marking it for every possible category, Jean Smart’s eccentric performance as a gossip columnist is hard to forget.

The National Board of Review made a bold choice by giving their Best Supporting Actress prize to Janelle Monae for Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery; while it seems odd that there could be multiple sequels in the mix for Best Picture, Monae is certainly more likely to get in over Jennifer Connelly in Top Gun: Maverick, Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, or Sigourney Weaver in Avatar: The Way of Water.

The Outliers and Oddities

Image via Neon

Triangle of Sadness is bizarre, but given how many “eat the rich” films we’ve seen this year, it would make sense if the Academy responded to the Palme D’Or winner and the incredible performance by Dolly De Leon. We may learn more about how audiences are responding to The Inspection in the coming weeks as it expands, but if voters like the film, Gabrielle Union’s terrifying performance as a homophobic mother is riveting. Sadly, it seems like Anne Hathaway’s powerful turn in Armageddon Time may have slipped through the cracks, as James Gray’s autobiographical coming-of-age story seems to be getting left out of most early predictions.

The New York Film Critics Circle made a bold choice and gave their supporting actress prize to Keke Palmer in Nope; while Nope is a hard genre movie that would be outside of the Academy’s wheelhouse, Jordan Peele’s pedigree and the film’s enthusiastic fans could boost a late surge in its favor. It seems like word-of-mouth on The Son is so bad that Laura Dern and Vanessa Kirby are out of the question, but there’s always the chance that the film’s tawdry melodrama appeals to some voters when it goes wide in January. Similarly, White Noise has attracted a somewhat mixed reaction, but we’ve yet to see how its December 30th Netflix debut will fare; if voters love the film, and it becomes a Don’t Look Up-style hit, could Greta Gerwig’s hilarious performance surprise us?

We also need to watch out for any late-breaking contenders that could sneak in. The review embargo for A Man Called Otto has not yet been lifted, but early word-of-mouth is positive, with many reactions noting the strength of supporting actress Mariana Treviño. Similarly, there’s been radio silence surrounding the release of the biopic I Wanna Dance With Somebody, but if the film hits in the same way a biopic like Bohemian Rhapsody did, then perhaps Nafessa Williams’ role as Robyn Crawford could attract attention.

The Lack Of Consensus Is Exciting

Image via A24

Award shows are often treated as horse races, which isn’t necessarily a great way to look at artistic achievement. It’s not a quantifiable medium, so it is always going to come down to personal opinion. Award season offers a great way for more film fans and casual viewers to get engaged in the conversation; when you have a fluid category like this, the more films and performances being discussed will attract more people to watch them. Having a diverse, interesting set of contenders floating around the eventual five slots at the Academy Awards is a great way to highlight many films that could be forgotten about otherwise.

It would be great if Nicole Kidman’s terrifying turn in The Northman, Dakota Johnson’s endearing role in Cha Cha Real Smooth, Tang Wei’s nuanced performance in Decision to Leave, or Kristen Stewart’s hilarious work in Crimes of the Future managed to circle back in the mix, but sadly, smaller films released earlier in the year are often forgotten by the time that the awards season gets in swing. There are issues with how these ceremonies play out, but if there’s one thing for certain this year, it’s that it will be fun to track which of the excellent actresses rises to the top.