Eight years ago, less than two weeks after a shock election that saw he who will not be named on their way to the White House, 20th Century Fox held a screening of “Hidden Figures” on the Fox lot. The movie had been considered a borderline Best Picture contender, but the political environment, some fantastic performances, and incredible box office saw it make the field of nine nominees that year. Last night, a little over two weeks. from a shock election that saw who will not be named heading back to the White House, Searchlight Pictures screened James Mangold’s “A Complete Unknown” on the now FOX lot. While contextually a more rumored nominee than “Figures,” history appears on its way to repeating itself.
Have you signed up for The Breakdown yet? Don’t you want those Oscar takes…first? Aren’t you looking for an industry newsletter that isn’t $5 or more a month? (Yes, we’re free). Sign up now.
Granted, we are embargoed from formally reviewing the movie, and we won’t attempt to, but Mangold has once again arrived with another genuine awards contender. He already has one Best Picture nominee on his resume with “Ford v. Ferrari” and guided “Walk the Line” to five nominations including a Best Actress win for Reese Witherspoon. And “Unknown” will remind members that, “Yes, James Mangold really knows how to direct a movie.”
This year’s Best Picture nomination race is still not anywhere near settled and ready for a surprise (or three), but “A Complete Unknown” feels like it should be a nominee. It’s not a lock (only five movies are), but it’s in the ten…for now.
The film’s real players are in the acting categories where Timothee Chalamet not only should earn his second Best Actor nomination for portraying the iconic Bob Dylan but also has an excellent shot to win. He’s that impressive. Monica Barbaro is a revelation as Joan Baez. The Supporting Actress race is now as cutthroat as the ongoing Best Actress gauntlet, but she’s absolutely a player to be reckoned with going forward. Edward Norton is also quite good as the legendary folk singer Pete Seeger. He’ll be in the mix for a Supporting Actor nomination.
For below-the-line categories, “A Complete Unknown” is in contention for Sound, Hair and Make-up, Costumes (three-time nominee Arianne Phillips), Production Design (François Audouy), and, potentially Cinematography (Phedon Papamichael). That being said, the latter category is markedly competitive this season. It would have to knock out some major players to crack Directing (Mangold), Editing (Oscar-winner Andrew Buckland), or Adapted Screenplay (Mangold and Jay Cocks), but they are not completely out of the question. It just depends on how embraced the movie is overall by the Academy and Guild voters.
Speaking of guild voters, don’t discount “Unknown” as a SAG ensemble play. Elle Fanning, Boyd Holbrook, and Scoot McNairy, in particular, also deliver memorable performances.
Taking all that into account here’s the state of the Best Picture race with your latest Contender Countdown…
November 21, 2004
1 “Anora”
Not just loved, but adored. Cinematic, a box office hit, and critically acclaimed, but, somehow not the winner? This movie isn’t going to get a slew of second-place votes? We’re increasingly skeptical of this take. Remember you win in phase one…not two.
2 “The Brutalist”
Could still potentially take the crown, but might need some major critics’ group wins to get there because there is this hit movie about a…
3 “Conclave”
…that everyone thinks is going to steal the crown from “Anora.” It absolutely could. Wouldn’t be mad at it.
4 “Emilia Perez”
There is a passionate fan base both here and overseas. It will get in the 10. That being said, we’re concerned about the reaction from those watching it on a screener site or via Netflix at home. And these are people with…taste.
5 “Dune Part II”
Just doing its thing. Minding time with the worms. Safe as safe can be.
6 “A Real Pain”
Can Jesse Eisenberg sneak into the Best Actor race? That’s the question. 7 “Nickel Boys”
Some major critic awards wins would help keep it top of mind. Could be saved by a slew of Independent Spirit Awards nominations, tbh (really).
8 “A Complete Unknown”
To suggest AMPAS members over 60 are going to love it is an understatement of epic proportions.
9 “Wicked”
When you have the same Metacritic score as the movie that’s “supposed” to be a more legit nominee than you.
10 “Challengers”
Zendaya has been activated. This is not a drill.
11 “Sing Sing”
A24 has put the pedal to the metal. Let’s see what happens.
12 “Blitz”
We’re increasingly concerned. Is there enough British voter love to put it over the top?
13 “September 5”
The darkhorse. Could be the Academy screening app winner of the season.
14 “The Room Next Door”
SPC knows how to work a room, a screening, a bodega, a multiplex parking lot, and a TSA check-in at JFK. They can hunt AMPAS members like no other. But in such a competitive year is it enough?
15 “Civil War”
If the last two weeks have demonstrated anything it’s that there is more than enough time for potential political madness to make this thriller more timely than ever (and for all the wrong reasons).
15 “Hard Truths”
Marianne Jean-Baptiste. Marianne Jean-Baptiste. Marianne Jean-Baptiste. Marianne Jean-Baptiste.
16 “Nosferatu”
Likely a major below-the-line player at this point. Lily Rose-Depp still has a shot at Supporting.
17 “The Substance”
MUBI needs to spend. They need major AMPAS members to champion it. And those members need to be loud. Very, very loud. If not? “Saltburn” baby.
18 “Gladiator II”
If the box office is genuinely massive. If we’re looking at $700 million global by, say, Christmas or New Year’s Day? Watch out.
19 “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
It’s getting lost overall and it’s genuinely heartbreaking.
20 “The Piano Lesson”
Danielle Deadwyler. Danielle Deadwyler. Danielle Deadwyler. Danielle Deadwyler.