Back in 1997, marketing director Marc Randolph and computer scientist Reed Hastings would carpool together while living and working in California. Both were highly talented and successful at what they did, but it was when they put their heads together that they later hit upon a game-changing idea for a company that would eventually lead to the iconic Blockbuster Video going bankrupt, and the world shifting toward their vision instead. That company was Netflix, and you’d be hard-pressed to find a corner of the globe where its name isn’t known.

Given all that this streaming platform has grown to become, it’s hard to believe that Netflix once started off as a DVD rental and sales website that operated by mail. The company’s popularity and growth led to it later changing to a subscription service, and therein lay the model it would later use to eventually evolve again and become the world’s preeminent streaming service. As Randolph would later say:

When we were kicking around the idea for Netflix in 1997, proving out an idea was expensive and labor-intensive. There was no Squarespace, no cloud. If you wanted a website, you had to build it from scratch. If you wanted an online store, you had to completely design it yourself.

Fast-forward to 2023 and Netflix’s massive global success has led to the age of streaming services we live in today. With the likes of Disney+, Hulu, Paramount+, and Prime Video now all major participants in the so-called streaming wars, Netflix has more competition than ever before, but has so far remained the number one streamer despite all contenders.

On the other hand, Apple’s long, sometimes shaky, but overall illustrious history has seen it go from the verge of bankruptcy to becoming the largest company in the world, with a staggering market capitalization of currently close to $3 trillion. With that kind of financial clout, when the company diversified into the streaming market in 2019 and launched Apple TV+, it was obvious they were destined to be serious players.

Yet, less than four years on, their massive growth year-on-year has taken them beyond merely being a player, with plenty of metrics now pointing to the fact that they may actually be poised to become the number one streaming service. Now the question is, could Apple TV+ actually pull off the unthinkable and dethrone Netflix in 2024?

How Netflix Consolidated Their Position

By being the first major streaming service to specialize in movies and TV series (YouTube can lay claim to being the first streaming service in general), Netflix naturally had a huge lead over competitors when they first began to burgeon. It first relied on offering acquired films and series, but this soon became unaffordable on a large scale, so Reed Hastings began overseeing an ambitious move as the company began its first foray in producing and offering its own original content.

Though the first original show was a lesser known European co-produced show Lillyhammer, the first truly original show was House of Cards in 2013. Despite Kevin Spacey’s off-screen troubles later derailing the show, its popularity and initial success provided the template for Netflix to shift its focus to original offerings on a large scale. That success soon led to hit shows like Daredevil, Orange Is the New Black, and Stranger Things. The rest, as they say, is history. Less than a decade later, they’ve now produced over 3600 shows and movies, with original content now making up more than half their library.

Related:Is Streaming Helping or Hurting Television?

Netflix Has Grown Both Quantity and Quality
Netflix

However, it’s not just the quantity that has mattered over the years. The popularity of their original content has also often been matched by its quality. In total, Netflix shows can currently boast over 100 Emmy Award nominations, with 17 wins among them.

In addition to this, they’ve received over 130 Academy Award nominations, and scored more than 20 wins, despite the controversy surrounding them and Oscars, since the company rarely embraces theatrical releases. In short, their original content has ensured continued growth and solidified their position as the number one streaming service over the years.

Apple TV+ Prioritizes Quality

Given how successful Netflix’s model for original offerings has been, other streamers like Apple TV+ have all followed suit. In comparison, Apple TV+ can’t boast anything close to the kind of library volume Netflix has. However, what is becoming clear is that it’s seemingly winning in terms of the quality of its original content. According to Tech Radar, Apple TV+ has the most-liked original content:

“According to Parrot Analytics, less than 20% of Netflix’s output of original shows are considered ‘good or better’ by American viewers. That paltry figure places it behind every major streamer apart from Prime Video, which sits bottom of the pile with a ‘good or above’ TV original rating of just 14%. Apple TV Plus doesn’t just dominate the in-demand show space in the US, however… the streamer’s TV originals are also more in demand than those of any other platform worldwide, with 46.9% of Apple’s in-house developed series deemed good, outstanding, or exceptional… way out in front of its nearest rival, Paramount Plus (32.7%) from a global standpoint.”

If this data is anything to go by, it’s clear that Apple TV+ is developing a considerably relevant edge. It isn’t altogether surprising though, since Apple TV+ currently boasts original shows like the acclaimed Ted Lasso and The Morning Show, with its limited series like Lessons in Chemistry and its original movies like Killers of the Flower Moon all proving extremely popular among viewers while raking in critical acclaim.

The Price Hikes
Apple TV+

As another indirect indicator of Apple TV’s emerging dominance, the streamer hiked its subscription price again, making it the second increase since October 2022. The monthly fee for an Apple TV+ subscription in the US now costs $9.99 (up from $6.99 last year), or $99 annually (up from $69).

It should be kept in mind that other streamers have also hiked prices, and that Apple TV+ still remains among the cheapest services available to US customers. It therefore seems these moves not only signal their intent to increase revenue, but also make a bold statement of their confidence that their growth will continue despite the hikes.

Related:The 20 Best Netflix Movies of 2023, Ranked

The Numbers are Telling
Apple TV

The hikes came as a part of an overall strategy that saw Apple gathering money for its gaming service, Apple Arcade. Rather than an attempt to simply capitalize on higher fees, the data seems to indicate that Apple is actually consolidating its position in line with its growth. According to AppleInsider, the service’s viewership is up 42% year-on-year, with its viewing hours doubling since 2022.

It isn’t altogether cut and dry, since the data relied on doesn’t cater for the differences in library volumes between Netflix and Apple TV+ so it can be adjusted accordingly, or that Netflix is notorious for not releasing all of its viewing data. However, Netflix has often come under fire from subscribers who bemoan the fact that Netflix has too much content without enough focus on quality, and their recent crackdown on password sharing has also not gone down well and caused many subscribers to shift away from them.

While time will tell which of the two giants will ultimately prevail in the war to be the biggest streaming service in the world, for now, a lot of the data seems to suggest that Apple TV+ is indeed poised to overtake Netflix in 2024.